Safe to say at least one of yesterday’s two was not on a going day. Lohoobb was given a very easy ride, to be polite, and even when squeezed up Billy Lee made zero effort to get out or correct it. They will clearly have something in mind for that one, but a guessing game as to what that may be. Marmeladova either had something amiss or it was another, more obvious example of the above, as she was eased down last. Two utterly baffling performances, either way, and why I play Ireland less than U.K.
New problem – Email list has been canned. Betting-related material. A testing few days on the website front and this is certainly not as easy as it used to be. Every single part of it comes with a litany of legality and every other thing costs extra as a bolt-on. I’m trying to source an alternative mailing list, but if it’s going to cost me any more it won’t be happening.
Led, ridden and hung left 1f out, headed final 110yds, soon weakened
In touch with leaders, headway over 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong
Pressed leader, led after 4f, headed then hung left over 1f out, no extra inside final furlong (jockey said gelding hung left-handed
Carmel Valley needs no introduction. She ran a monster race bumped right up in class a few weeks back, and made a mighty good fist of landing it, only being reeled in inside the last 100 yards. She drops right back in grade today, and should prove mighty tough for any of these to reel her in under Jason Hart. Think she slaps up here.
Ballybunion caught the eye on first start on the artificial last time out, running on well at Wolverhampton despite being drawn in the car park and having to travel widest throughout. It was his first start following wind surgery, and the jockey booking that day suggested he wasn’t going expecting much. Callum Shepherd up for the first time today, who does well for Michael Bell, eased another few pounds and an extra furlong – all look like right positives based on last run’s evidence. Jack Morland’s Battosai is one I’ll have my eye on in the race at a price, making first start on the AW and bred to enjoy it. Easily could’ve gone with him but liked the run of Ballybunion that bit too much.
At Windsor, the Apprentice Handicap couldn’t shake my attention. Charlie Tucker is the only one in here getting a claim, who is a very capable rider and Rod Millman does well in restricted rider events. Windsor being a huge advantage to front runners, I fancy Just An Hour to go forward and make the running from stall 2, and he should be able to see them off with Tucker’s 7lb claim and being 1lb below the mark of 75 he won off, from a positive ride over C&D this time last year.
Best of luck all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhy are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races
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