A decent set of cards to chew over and, despite confidence being low, I feel noticeably confident going into the day. Proof will be in the pudding, but three up and with more expectation than hope. I feel like the definition of Mick McCarthy’s famous interview lately, though. “It can’t get worse, can it?”…. “It can!” Two standard bets at 2pts and one minimum bet for 1pt, reducing stakes based on the yard not being renowned for runners in bumpers, let alone winners. There was one who I was right after betting at Goodwood, but the hardest track to ride and a poor jockey booking meant I had to skip.
Kaaress yesterday had the race run perfectly to suit and was just nowhere near good enough. Possibly a bit further up than I’d have preferred early doors, but she wasn’t going to be threatening regardless on that evidence. One I’ll put a line through, unless coming back under William Carson (Attwater and Carson in Classified Stakes are a serious strike).
Never better than midfield
In touch with leaders, switched right over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
Held up in last, headway on outer over 2f out, went fourth over 1f out, sustained duel with winner final 110yds, just failed
First up is VEBLEN GOOD for David O’Meara and Conor Whiteley, a jockey claiming 5lbs who I really rate. One who has been very consistent since joining O’Meara, despite being given a few horrible looking rides in a good chunk of those (nee Daniel Tudhope). He went in the York Dash, shoved up in grade and looking right up against it, under a change in rider with Kieran Shoemark, another jockey I’m not particularly enamoured with, but they ran a huge race to finish 4th in a fiercely competitive race. Going here in a calmer race, back down in class and with Whiteley’s 5lbs claim, I think he is every bit the one to beat.
Next up is WIG WAM BAM, who will be no surprise, as another of the Jack Channon 2TO gravy train. She ran a nice enough race on debut in a warm enough Newbury Fillies’ Maiden, not coming under the whip but running on well enough. The form to come out of that race has some depth to it. A nice looking Blue Point filly, she looks a very likely Channon improver.
Last up is CUMNOCK in the Sedgefield Bumper, for a yard who have never had a winner in one. Not my ordinary angle, but on the pedigree front I thought this looked a dismal Bumper, so it might be worth digging into and I think I found an interesting snippet here on a dam who has produced some serious bumper form. Asturienne won on her debut in a Bumper for Alan King back in 2008, and has since produced four Bumper winners from her six offspring, with form figures in the sphere reading a handsome 41113622111919. Add her own win to that and it’s 8 from 15 for a 53% strike. The yard have only run 13 in Bumpers from their 430+ runners, so the fact they’re yet to win one isn’t a great negative, and she would be a fair candidate to get them off the mark.
I really wanted to bet Alice De Clare at Goodwood today, who has been hugely progressive; Space Blues progeny are showing a serious liking for the track and James Fanshawe’s runners are serious propositions whenever lining up here, especially his fillies (9/28 in G’wood Hcaps). However, the booking of Jonny Peate was a huge negative for me. Goodwood is as tough a ride as they come, and this is only his fourth ride at the track. In a competitive enough Class 5 heat, I had to skip over at the odds.
Alice De Clare (9/2, Goodwood 17:10).
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
New to this? Read up on: Going Descriptions · National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules
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