Neither of yesterday’s swings amounted to a great deal, but there was some promise in the latter runner, Horus, who put a respectable spin in at Kempton. The draw was always making that a tougher ask, and he wound up be sent all the way over to the rail, which I didn’t bank on and it didn’t pay.
He ended up in all manner of bother, being shut for a run up the rail and then being shut off again by the eventual winner, Up The Anti (50/1). He ran all the way through the line and would’ve fair far better with both a better draw and less trouble in-running.
He is one I have placed into the tracker, as there is sure to be better opportunities for him. He’ll likely remain a fair price too, as that run would’ve gone fairly well unnoticed.
The other I gave a nudge to yesterday, Expert Agent, did eventually drift to 8/1 but ran a poor enough race, which was won by a fairly well exposed sort which doesn’t bode well for it amounting to much. He’ll likely drop a bit further in the handicap for that, but he didn’t do a great deal to encourage following him next time. He could look brighter around Lingfield, where he has won twice.
Today – Sticking with the All-Weather
I’m going back on the Irish mover train, but this one is in a far different sphere. A very decent race and one I quite enjoyed having a good look at. These can be tricky races to get involved with and the 3-year-olds can prove tough nuts at the weights.
20:00 Chelmsford – Bravais 28/1 – 1pt Each-Way
The fairly lightly-raced five-year-old BRAVAIS makes his stable debut for Ian Williams as a £40,000 purchase, and this warm Class 2 Handicap will be his first race on the All-Weather.
He has some good sprinkling of class in his form – A Listed placed 3rd over a mile in Chantilly, another Listed placed 3rd over 1m2f at Deauville, and a Group 2 placed 3rd over 1m4f at Longchamp, all coming when housed with André Fabre, before a win and three 2nd placed finishes from just seven outings for Ger Lyons in Ireland.
He’s out of a smart mare in Lucky Kristale and by Frankel, who’s progeny have a rock solid strike rate around Chelmsford (20% Win) and they record an impressive 47% placed strike-rate over the mile distance (25/53).
Edward Greatrex rides, a very sound rider, who has a record over the 12 months of 4 wins and 3 places from just 20 rides at Chelmsford, and 5 wins and 3 places from 23 rides for Ian Williams. Both materially positive pointers, and he goes to Chelmsford tonight for this one interesting ride.
His run in July at Naas, when runner-up to Camanche Brave, suggests to me this opening UK mark of 101 could well underestimate him. He gave the 4/7fav, rated 111, a full 7lbs at the weights that day and ran a stormer to finish ¾ length down. He is far better treated at the weights today and running to that level here has him right in the finish.
I like it all and at 25/1 am very comfortable with going for a full 1pt EW (2pts total) with numerous bookmakers offering 3-places (1/5) on the 7-runner race.
Other Notes
I had a right good look at the Nursery at Chelmsford (17:30), because this looks a seriously rancid race, which I’d hoped would be easy pickings. However, in one way or another they all stank, so despite always coming back to old friend Dave Loughnane’s runner Far Too Fizzy, being the only one proven to be capable of winning thus far, I wasn’t going to be getting involved at shortening odds of 15/8 (now even shorter).
All the best today.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
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