A quiet month quickly turned into a very merry Christmas, with Barlovenko and Idaho Sun both going in from yesterday’s three selections, which made it three consecutive winning bets. Racing, and the betting of, can be a funny game.
I’m travelling the length of the U.K today to visit the in-laws, so no blog from me. I do have three bets staked, though. Forgive on the lack of clarity, on this occasion – please.
Skylight Hustle 4/1 | 2pt Win
13:47 Leopardstown
T: Gordon Elliott
J: Jack Kennedy
Result: WON – 1/8 +8pts
Held up in midfield, went second after 2 out, led approaching last, headed just before last, soon left in lead and clear, ran on well (SP 3/1)
Silver Samurai 15/2 | 1pt Win
18:30 Wolverhampton
T: Marco Botti
J: Luke Catton
Result: unplaced – 11/12 -1pt
Ducked right start, towards rear throughout (SP 16/1)
Cali Case 22/1 | 0.5pt EW
20:00 Wolverhampton
T: Joe Ponting
J: Charlie Tucker (7)
Result: unplaced – 10/11 -1pt
Pressed leaders early, in touch with leaders after 2f (SP 33/1)
In the Welsh National at Chepstow, the drying ground has likely made it a wide open contest. I’ve stayed out of it, but I kept looking and looking again at the unexposed Hung Jury (25/1), for Martin Keighley. Given just enough opportunities to be able to eeek his mark up to squeeze into this. Would be a remarkable bit of placement.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias · Each-Way Betting
Get tomorrow's pick before the off
Every selection posted before the race — the angle, the reasoning, the price. Free, no fluff.
