There is a particular quiet that arrives when a horse you have just backed refuses to leave the stalls.
Star Material, Redcar, the 29th. The gates went and he stood there. Because he had entered the stalls, he was deemed a runner, and the bet went down as a loser without the horse ever breaking into a canter. I know a few punters got their money back as a goodwill gesture, but the record does not deal in goodwill gestures, so it went in as minus two.
That was July. Not the whole of it, but it rhymes.
The numbers, and no way round them
Thirty selections across eighteen Daily Dials. Fifty-nine points staked. Minus 29.1 points.
One winner. Two placed. Two non-runners, and twenty-five that ran and lost. From the twenty-eight that actually took part, that is a strike rate of 3.6%, against a long-run figure north of 11%. It is the worst month since I started publishing again, and the only one so far with just the single winner in it, and I would rather write that sentence than dress it up.
It is also the second losing month in a row. June went down 9.6 points, which at the time read like an ordinary dip after five straight winning months. Two of them together read differently, and I would be insulting your intelligence to pretend otherwise. I’ve been betting the game long enough to experience lengthy losing runs, but this one was particularly tough. Betting winners is the bar, but there is a bit of a moral victory which comes with betting one who goes mighty close, and when you’re on a bad run, those moral victories can go a long way.
Needless to say, the moral victories were also absent. Whilst familiar with the lonely sensation of a losing run, I had always had the mild comfort blanket of the moral victory here and there to percolate the confidence. This run though, well… the fact it took until the 27th of the month for a bet to finish within a length of the winner just about sums it up.
There were also six days in there with no bet at all. I mention that not for credit but because it is the only part of the month I would not change. On the days the card did not offer anything I was confident about, nothing went. Given how the rest of it went, the temptation to force one was real.
Every selection is on the results page with the price, the stake and the running comment, the same as always. Nothing has been trimmed.
July 2026, running points. 30 bets (2 void) · place strike 10.7% · BSP −5%: −26.16pt (ROI −44.3%) · average odds 14.70 · average beaten 8L (27 completed). Every line of it is on the results page, and the same slice is filterable in the Explorer.
The one that went in
Sugar Sugar at Epsom on the 30th, two points at 15/2, won by a neck.
Taken down early, took keen hold, in touch with leaders, hung left when headway over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, ridden to lead inside final 110yds
She had been a long time coming. We first went in on her five weeks earlier at Brighton when she was a 50/1 shot, and she was beaten out of a place by half a length after being given a very gentle ride and looking for all the world like she was dropping away two out, but she finished strongly. To my eye she was travelling the best of anything through the line, and we were unlucky to get nothing for it.
She ran once more in between, a maiden at Wolverhampton that I let go by. By Dream Ahead, drawn in the car park, and they are not progeny I want on the All-Weather. She ran another cracker anyway, bustled up from the wide draw, travelling like a dream, and only bumped into one far too good in George Wickham, who has since been rated 80. She still put three lengths between herself and the rest.
So she came to Epsom making her handicap bow off 65, and I thought that mark had underestimated her. Jack Channon eases his newcomers in, she had been given two tentative rides, and for me she deserved 70+. My one worry was the track, which is not a kind place to ask an inexperienced filly a question.
She took a keen hold, hung left twice, and still got up inside the last hundred yards. Not elegant, but a begger will not choose. Fifteen points positive, but ultimately only damage limitations across the month.
The ones that didn’t quite
took keen hold, in touch with leaders, ridden 2f out, headway entering final furlong, soon chased winner, kept on but always held towards finish
The Liffey at Goodwood, a point each-way at 22/1, second of twenty, beaten three-quarters of a length. He ran a hugely positive race from the front and, given how those enormous Goodwood fields were unfolding all week, the run deserves marking up rather than filing under bad luck. Goodwood is probably the hardest betting track in the country and without doubt the hardest to ride, and a full bet in a twenty-runner handicap there is not something I would make a habit of, but I think he at least justified why I fancied him.
Tanmawwy at Windsor, half a point each-way at 50/1, fourth of twelve, but on account of a range of bookmakers going an extra place about the race – a place the 8-year-old duly snatched. He was midfield, lost his run briefly over a furlong out, hung left and kept on. He returned 40/1 and got us four and a half much needed points back.
Midfield, briefly not clear run when headway over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, kept on towards finish
Carmel Valley at Ayr was one that stung. She was jumped right up in grade, attempted to make every yard, and was only reeled in inside the last hundred yards to finish third beaten a length. She clearly goes very well round Ayr, but was just found out at the level. Katie Scott will have plenty easier options for her and I will be all over her in a lesser contest.
Downmexicoway was fifth of twenty-two in the Galway Plate, beaten under four lengths, let down in patches by his jumping. There is improvement in that run and is one I will keep on side of. It’s one of my favourite races of the year to study, which goes against a lot I say in terms of betting in overly competitive races, but it’s a race which has been good to me historically. The runner-up – Conyers Hill, is one who I will be watching closely regarding entries over the winter. I would love to have seen him sneak into the bottom of the handicap in the Ultima at Cheltenham in March. He was very easy to back in the Plate and duly ran a cracker, but I think there is a monster win in him over three miles.
Any one of the above popping in probably would’ve made the month feel at least pallatable, but ultimately none had any real complaints.
The Max bet
Took keen hold, prominent, weakened 2f out (trainer had no explanation for the poor form shown; vet had nothing to report)
Hout Bay, York, the 25th. Five points at 5/2, my only maximum stake of the month, of which I have probably five or six all year, and she finished last of six beaten nine and a half lengths.
I wrote at the time that going Max Bet in a month that had not got going felt like asking for a kick in the teeth, and the kick was well and truly delivered, in style. The case was a debut run at Newmarket where she was beaten a length and a quarter at 50/1 having been hampered twice, the second badly enough that you would have forgiven her downing tools entirely. She gathered herself and finished motoring. Stuart Williams has a 3.3% strike rate with newcomers, so one who runs like that on debut is a serious note to take, and the form had taken a good boost the day before.
She took a keen hold, went prominent, and emptied two out. The trainer was called in by the stewards and had no explanation for it. Sometimes there is no story and no lesson, just a bad run, a bounce they often call it. She is another by Bayside Boy, whose progeny we’ve followed closely and with fair reward, but had I looked closer at the dam’s side, I probably would’ve refrained from a Max Bet. Easy to say in hindsight, but the best she had produced to date was 68 rated Klopp Of The Kop. Ultimately, the debut run and the Bayside Boy angle lured me in, and it was one that really stung.
What July actually taught me
Two things, and only one of them is comfortable.
The comfortable one: the reasoning held up. Sugar Sugar, The Liffey, Carmel Valley and Downmexicoway all ran to something like the shape I expected. When the prices are 15/2, 22/1 and 50/1 you do not need many of them to land, and one of them did.
The uncomfortable one: I was slow to accept what kind of month I was in. Sonnerie Power at Kempton is the example. That was a bet to take on a desperately short-priced favourite, and I knew inside half a furlong we were cooked, because the field came out of the stalls at something close to a trot and the bet is entirely one-paced. The favourite was beaten at 8/15 and I still did not get the dart right, as the pace just didn’t transpire how I’d envisgaed, which was a worryingly recurring theme.
Then there was the Wednesday I went through every runner in a race, convinced I had the beating of all of them, and said out loud of one that I would not bet with your money – Big Bear Hug. Needless to say, the Big Bear won at 22/1. When things are not going your way they find ways to really, truly not go your way. Kick in teeth number two taken.
There is a version of this write-up where I tell you a variance story and move on. I do not think that is honest enough. Variance is real and thirty bets is a small sample, but a month like this is also worth reading properly, and what I take from it is that I was backing the right horses into races that were not being run to suit them. That is a pace and race-shape problem more than a selection problem. I have my method for judging a pace, a method which I have used to fair success for many years, and whilst I won’t act on one bad month, I do need to be open to the idea that there may be a better way, as too many were just nowhere near how they ultimately unfolded.
A message on the 21st
On the morning of the 21st, a reader called Daniel sent me this. I had put up White Umbrella at Wolverhampton at 18/1.
Mate, been a tough run but simply cannot fault the relentless research and reasoning behind selections. I managed to get on at 18/1 today. Into 7/1 everywhere — just shows you’re still ahead of the curve. Variance will turn around.
08:24She finished fourth of eleven and returned 11/1. So it did not come with a winner attached.
I have thought about that message more than I have thought about any result in July. Not for the encouragement, though I needed it more than I let on at the time. For the bit in the middle. Getting 18/1 about a horse the market then halved is the one thing in a losing month that still tells you something true. The result is one race, run once, and a lot of it is out of your hands. The price is the market marking your homework, and it marked that one well.
Daniel reckons variance will turn. He is probably right, and I said as much back to him at the time — I was well due a dip on the law of averages.
Into August
Nothing dramatic changes. I am not tearing up a method that produced a 15/2 winner and a beaten-three-quarters-of-a-length second at 22/1 inside the same week.
What I am doing is being harder about race shape before the money goes on. White Umbrella cost two points twice in July, and the first of those rested entirely on a pace make-up that never turned up, which left her far more prominent than was any use to her. If the race has to be run a particular way for my horse to be involved, that is now a question I want answered before the bet, not after it, and I need to be more confident on that.
A few to keep on side: Carmel Valley in a lesser contest, Downmexicoway with his jumping tidied up, and The Liffey, especially where he will get a lead. I’ll also offer a shout to Hot To Foxtrot, a lowly rated Irish handicapper who I’ve offered up twice the now. A Footstepsinthesand mare with John Feane, she has been running over 5f and 6f, always keeping on into the places. She looks like wanting further and definitely has a win in her off of her mark of just 53.
If you want August’s as they go up, they are emailed before the off.
July cost 29.1 points and a bruised ego. Tough times make us sharper, though.
Always trying,
Bet logs, spreadsheets and course cheatsheets — built the same honest way as the tips.
Visit the Shop →Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Going Descriptions · National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules
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