Three bets across the day, one from each of Redcar, Goodwood and Galway, on what is a really decent day of it. Goodwood is probably the hardest betting track in the country, along with being the hardest track to ride, so playing a full bet there in a 20-runner handicap isn’t something I’d make a habit of. Quite something that the 20-runner race doesn’t come close to being the biggest field there on the day, as the Charlton Handicap (17:00) has 28 runners set to go to post. Goodwood can find jockeys steering themselves into trouble in the smallest of fields, so these could get really messy.
Monday’s two selections were vastly contrasting runs. Carmel Valley ran a huge race shoved right up in grade (jumping two classes), attempting to make every yard of it and nearly doing so, only being reeled in inside the last 100 yards or so, finishing 3rd beaten just a length. She clearly goes very well around Ayr, but was just found wanting a bit at that level. Katie Scott will have many easier options for her and I’d be all over her in a lesser contest. The same couldn’t be said for Lanespark, who was subject to an almighty plunge in the build-up to the off, backed in from 16/1 into an SP of 9/2, but ran a dismal race to finish tailed off.
Refused to race (Having reviewed the start, the Stewards were satisfied that STAR MATERIAL had refused to race as the start was effected and was therefore deemed a runner)
took keen hold, in touch with leaders, ridden 2f out, headway entering final furlong, soon chased winner, kept on but always held towards finish
In touch with leaders, not fluent 6th, not fluent 7th, headway after last, never dangerous
First goes today, STAR MATERIAL for the in-form Adrian Keatley, who was an easy one in the notebook last time out. Draw widest at Chepstow, he was brought all the way over to the near side rail, and but for a slightly hesitant ride and the latter trouble that found him, he would’ve been far closer than the 1¼ lengths he was beaten in 3rd, if not for winning. Chepstow is a rugged test of stamina which he saw out with aplomb, so I’d suggest the long Redcar run-in will suit him ideally, and off the same mark with a big upgrade in the saddle (despite this being an apprentice riders’ race here).
Next goes THE LIFFEY for Hayley Burton and Marco Ghiani, who had me kicking myself for not chancing him at the beginning of the month when winning on stable debut at Kempton at 25/1. Having rattled off a trio of wins in decent Dundalk Claimers (the exact same racing surface as Kempton) and having been rated 98 the previous year when with Joseph O’Brien, he was a very obvious chance off an OR of 85. Considering he went into that race having won 5 of his first 15 races, it was staggering he was running off a career low 13lbs below his opening mark (93). Up 4lbs for winning by a neck tells you the handicapper thinks his Irish mark may not have been unrealistic, and with his pedigree (by No Nay Never and out of the wonderful Galileo mare Rain Goddess), I think they could have bags of fun with him and fancy him to continue to progress.
Last is one over the sticks at Galway, as a notebook entry at the Cheltenham Festival is back out in Henry de Bromhead’s DOWNMEXICOWAY. He ran a screamer in the Plate in 4th and would’ve gone far closer but for being carried right out on the turn in. Just 3 lengths separated him and Gavin Cromwell’s runner-up Will The Wise, who boosted the form the following month when winning the Topham at Aintree. They reoppose here, with de Bromhead’s charge getting a full 9lbs swing in the weights over Will The Wise, which, considering the trouble Downmexicoway had in-running, looks too generous. That Cheltenham run was just his second start in a handicap over a fence, this being his third, so the fact he was dropped 2lbs for it looks very generous.
Charlie Mason (33/1, Goodwood 17:00), Pure Majesty (3/1, Leicester 17:55) and King High (9/2, Sandown 18:50).
Today’s Stat Attack is online with today’s pointers. This is meant as nothing more than pointing out the interesting angles which can be found with certain trainers heading to specific tracks, with their strike rates noted.
Be lucky, all!
Every Daily Dial bet ends up in the public log, win or lose. The Formdial Ledger gives you the same engine for your own betting — log bets in seconds, settle them in a click, and see your real strike rate and ROI.
Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeHow do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules · Place Terms
Be a founding member of a brand new UK syndicate.
“We don’t want to be on the perimeter, watching from the stands. We want to walk into the winners enclosure as owners and we want to bring a whole generation with us.”
- Shares from
- 1%
- Up front from
- £350
- Available now
- Two horses
