New Years Day saw a feast of racing, but from the three darts thrown, it was a blank and dull day. The one I fancied like a fancy thing, Pallas Lord, was nutted into 2nd in the closing stages, and I can’t help feel aggrieved at what looked a woefully weak ride in the finish by Sean Kirrane.
The winner was a very well handicapped horse, but Pallas Lord and Sean Kirrane were given the run of the race, totally uncontested, so to be reeled in like they were from out the back, was very frustrating.
The 35T drew a blank too, whilst the rest mentioned in the notes saw a flurry of winners, with Paul Nicholls landing winners at 2/1 and 4/1 at Musselburgh, and the Shannon Rose runner in the Tramore Maiden scooted up at 10/3. All in all, it was just a disappointing day.
Today’s racing…
Poor stuff. An awful lot of really low grade stuff, which I ordinarily do not turn my nose up at, but a lot of these are beyond that. I managed to snuffle out two I wanted on side at the prices, and have gone with both. The latter is the better bet, being a fantastic EW price for all considered.
Different Tone 11/2 | 1pt WIN
13:12 Chelmsford
T: Rebecca Menzies
J: Jason Watson
Result: unplaced – PU/7 -1pt
In touch with leaders, weakened over 3f out, pulled up over 1f out. The Veterinary Officer reported that he finished lame on his left-fore. (SP 9/2)
Sense Of Worth 18/1 | ½pt EW
20:00 Wolverhampton
20:00 WolverhamptonT: Seb Spencer
J: Dale Swift
Result: unplaced – 9/9 -1pt
Unable to keep pace. Weakened from turn in (SP 14/1)
Different Tone looks a knocking bet back over the C&D he run a huge race over prior to switching to Rebecca Menzies. The form of that race has worked out really well, suggesting his ability here can be marked up considerably. This is a far weaker contest than that, in what looks a seriously good opportunity for a shrewd bunch of owners. Early market moves will mean nothing here, but any last minute (or seconds) moves will prove telling.
Sense Of Worth at Wolverhampton is an outstanding bet. Twice a winner at the course during 2025, and he has ran into the places on four further occasions, all of which have come off of higher marks than the 58 he runs off here – The two wins coming off of 64 and 65.
I’m taking on Take The Boat in this against Sense Of Worth, who I backed last time and marked down as one not on a going day. Up in trip here, which I just can’t have. Wait for that one dropping back to a mile or 7f.
Other notes…
I had Whistle Stop Tour (15:30 Ayr) marked down for a must bet next time out over hurdles and one to keep a firm eye on over fences. Back over hurdles today, but to my amazement it’s under the same jockey who cost him the race I took him from.
10lb claimer Gregor Walkingshaw was absolutely woeful in the run-in under him over this C&D in November, somehow getting him beaten 1¼ lengths when he was obviously lobbing, but Danny Mcmenamin gave him a riding lesson in the finish.
I’m astounded he is back on board here and couldn’t possibly back him at the price. A Point-to-Point rider and trainer, he has just 2 winners from 42 rides, both wins coming over fences.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias
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