Another blank drawn from the two yesterday, continuing a bit of a timid time of it. Titian Blue looked likely to be going mighty close when he came bursting through to lead at a crucial stage, but he emptied very quickly and was duly swallowed. That looked a fitness thing, looking very likely to be winning races soon enough and is one I’d back again.
The weather has put paid to Chepstow, Plumpton and Naas today, so we’re left with the one All Weather card at Southwell. It’s not the worst card by any means, but it’s not an overly attractive betting card.
I’ve chanced one selection which stood out to me at the prices. If I was going to the races and wanted a play, I’d stick with the direction of the selection and just play the five Jim Goldie runners across the card. Runners at 18/1, 8/1, 10/1, 25/1 and 5/2. You’d fancy at least one to pop in given their record here, and the very useful Lauren Young and her 5lb claim ride each of them.
Ashen 18/1 | 1pt EW
13:30 Southwell
13:30 SouthwellT: Jim Goldie
J: Lauren Young⁵
Result: unplaced – 7/12 -2pt
Never better than midfield (SP 10/1)
The only selection today goes in a right trappy little race, and against one we’ve been following closely in Havana Sky, but at 18/1 I can’t let Ashen go, who was an almighty big eyecatcher on stable debut last time out and I can’t fathom the price on that run.
The least exposed horse in the race, who showed at least some signs of ability when with Marcus Tregoning, but he took a noticeable step forward when last seen, over today’s C&D under Paul Mulrennan.
He cruised through the race in the rear of midfield, but found himself in a nasty little pocket when straightening for home, which saw a plethora of rivals get a clear run for home well ahead of when he could make a move. Once beaten, Mulrennan just minded him home, eventually beaten 3¾ lengths.
He was value for far better than that, in what looked a fairly competitive handicap, so despite nudging up mildly in grade here, I fancy him to far outrun his odds of 18/1, the rank outsider in this field as the market stands.
A son of Phoenix Of Spain, whose progeny have struck 8 wins from 28 runs at Southwell, with 16 in total hitting the frame. He goes under the very useful 5lb claim of Lauren Young, who had a year to remember in 2025 and looks a very useful jockey in the making.
Worth noting too that Southwell is Jim Goldie’s best performing track, with a 17% strike rate from 100 runners and the only track where he shows a clear profit to level stakes (+30).
The aforementioned Havana Sky is an obvious danger in the race, and I looked more than once at Down To The Kid, which looks a muddling entry taking a marked drop in trip. What really stood out there was Neil Callan riding for Michael Herrington, a first since their only pairing in 2022, which was a winning combination.
Tadreeb is also a very useful performer at this level, is on a winnable mark and also goes under a claimer. The race is likely to be run with plenty of early pace, which will suit the selection but will also suit Tadreeb. They will need luck in-running, but I’d lean towards the less-exposed at a far bigger price any day.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
New to this? Read up on: Handicap Races · Betting Odds · Going Descriptions
Get tomorrow's pick before the off
Every selection posted before the race — the angle, the reasoning, the price. Free, no fluff.
