Having let yesterday go with nothing really poking me in the ribs, today couldn’t be further from it. Four selections on the day, with one standout at Cheltenham and three across Newcastle’s All Weather card.
Newcastle has always been, and continues to, a bit of a muddling one for me to judge. I find it continually inconsistent in terms of how I expect to unfold pace wise. I’m keeping the faith today, but I may start trading with more caution there again if results keep in the current vein.
Having watched Thursday’s selection, Further Measure at Southwell, go a complete non-jigger, hopefully I’ve found at least a few triers. It’s infuriating to watch that, especially so in a race which was begging to suit. I’ll never understand that one.
I can get my head around it when it is bursting with competitive chances, or obviously full of pace etc, but when you have one who wants to go forward and a field of none who want to lead… I don’t think they’ll get a better chance than that.
Anyway, moaning out of the way…
Favori De Champdou @ 11/1 | 1pt EW
Cheltenham 13:50
Cheltenham 13:50T: Gordon Elliott
J: Jack Kennedy
Result: Won – 1/16 +13.75pts
Prominent, led just after 3 out, pushed along and went clear before last, comfortably (SP 9/1)
Equality @ 15/2 | 2pt Win
Newcastle 17:35
Newcastle 17:35T: Charlie Hills
J: Billy Loughnane
Result: unplaced – 4/5 -2pt
Held up in rear, waiting for room then some headway from over 1f out, no impression inside final furlong (SP 15/2)
Alfa Whiteburd @ 16/1 | 1pt EW
Newcastle 18:05
Newcastle 18:05T: Ivan Furtado
J: Jordan Nason
Result: unplaced – 6/11 -2pt
Bumped start, prominent, weakened from over 1f out (SP 16/1)
That Lucas Fella @ 8/1 | 2pt Win
Newcastle 19:05
Newcastle 19:05T: Iain Jardine
J: Andrew Mullen
Result: Placed – 2/10 -2pt
Midfield, in touch with leaders when switched right 2f out, some headway over 1f out, kept on but no impression inside final furlong (SP 9/1)
I’m hoping you’ll forgive the lack of a brief when they all hose up. Time extremely tight this morning.
I really like Jack Kennedy being jocked back up on Favori De Champdou. He has an unbelievable record in these ultra long distance marathons, especially so around Cheltenham and Favori is a few pounds better at the weights than when facing up to Final Orders last time, where he unfortunately fell when I quite fancied him. He’ll love the ground today, too.
That Lucas Fella I’m sticking with after finishing 2nd for us LTO, where he was unfortunate to bump into a supremely well handicapped horse in Pink Socks, who has won multiple races since. The 3rd has also won since, but That Lucas Fella somehow gets dropped 1lb for this – go figure.
Equality requires a little leap of faith but only he and Paddy’s Day are proven over the five furlongs in this, with the rest having a lot to prove. Paddy’s Day has been flying up the weights, whilst Equality has been tumbling down the weights. The last run was a big positive though, his second run from a long long lay off. Looks a big chance given by handicapper.
Alfa Whiteburd goes for Ivan Furtado, who I don’t think has had him trying last twice on the AW over five furlongs. Back up to the six today, which he is 5/3 over this C&D. They have been riding him more patiently, rather than going forward with him which he goes really wel from. The cheekpieces on today for the first time, I think they’ll revert to positive tactics and he is 1lb below last winning mark. Big price for a live chance if on a going day.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
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