Two bets today, one over hurdles in Ireland and one on the All-Weather at Newcastle, both win bets at healthy enough prices. One being a breeding line we’ve followed who steps up in grade and looks overlooked in the betting, with the other one who has been running well but gets a marked upgrade in the saddle today.
A mixed bag from yesterday’s two, with Heathcliff justifying that 7f form to win going away at Lingfield, but Pickersgill ran a very disappointing race at Newcastle.
I’d suggest Heathcliff has ran to nothing more than his bare form, with the key just being easier company as I don’t think that race was amounting to anywhere near the level he had been in recently.
Stede Bonnet @ 8/1
Stede Bonnet @ 8/12pt Win | Punchestown 15:00
T: Gordon Elliott | J: Danny Gilligan
Result: unplaced – 3/4 -2pts | Raced in last, weakened before last, went third inside final 110yds (SP 11/2)
La Rochette @ 10/1
La Rochette @ 10/12pt Win | Newcastle 17:12
T: Tracy Waggott | J: Barry McHugh
Result: unplaced – 5/9 -2pts | Prominent, weakened inside final furlong (SP 9/1)
First of today’s two is one who got a brief mention back in December when we were looking into Shannon Royale, as I am very keen on following Shannon Rose offspring. She has a remarkable record at producing winners, who win on all types of ground, and I think this one in Stede Bonnet could go on to be the pick of the bunch, thus far at least.
He has looked a real improver this term, running a soid 2nd behind Upon Tweed at Ayr at the beginning of December, and has since ran out a more than comfortable winner in both starts since then.
Ground really doesn’t appear to bother him, he has a lovely attitude and despite having a bit to find on ratings, I think he can prove both them and the betting wrong and make a massive fist of this.
Latterly is one from the Newcastle All-Weather Restricted Riders card, which is restricted to riders who have ridden 30 or less winners in the calendar year. As such, there are many an inexperienced rider across the card, so I fancied looking for any notable jockey upgrades with riders who excel at Newcastle.
The standout is Barry McHugh, who has ridden 12 of 17 winners in the last twelve months at Newcastle, who has six rides across the card and it is easy enough to give a good squeak to most of them.
However, the one I most fancied at the prices was La Rochette, who has tumbled down the weights this year but has shown signs of returning to form over this course and distance on her last two starts.
She came to the U.K. from France and first ran on these shores on the turf in March last year off a mark of 86, but a summer of poor runs saw her rating fall dramatically, to the point she first ran on the all-weather over here in December off of 62. That first run was poor (over 6f) but both since have been positive and yet her mark has still been further eased to 57.
All of her all-weather runs in the U.K. have come under vastly lesser riders, and the last two runs looked like she was screaming out for someone to be strong in a finish to take over, so this change in the saddle looks significant given the competition.
The form level she has been running to is more than adequate for this grade and puts her bang in the mix for this, even getting a bit of a swing in the weights with those she has been finishing around, taking the jockeys claims out of the equation.
There is definitely ability in this mare and it wouldn’t surprise me if she rattled a few wins in a row at some point, so low is her mark and how unexposed she is on the all-weather, as this will be just her seventh career run on the all-weather all in.
Best of luck with your punting today,
