August ended on a drab note, with a duff bet at Southwell in one who doubled in price come the off and never got near competitive. The Redial, a monthly reflection on how the selections fared, will be online this evening, with an honest take on the highs (few) and lows (many), and a note on those we’ll be taking forward from them.
We kick September off with one bet, in the lucky last at Brighton, and it’s one I couldn’t be all that much sweeter about for a standard 2pt bet. If he hadn’t played such a consistent bridesmaid (he ran three consecutive 2nds) I’d have been seriously considering a max bet about him, though Charlie Johnston runs one against, who remains well enough handicapped. Other than that, it’s a relatively naff looking day, so I’ll let the rest run with just the one interest.
One to stick in your trackers for next time out from yesterday is Charlie Fellowes’s runner from the opener at Southwell, Sioux Moon, who was making her third start in Maiden company. She was outpaced early doors but swept through the field with ease to finish a very strong runner-up behind a comfortable winner. She qualifies for a mark now and went there against five already rated in the 70s. It’ll be interesting to see what mark the handicapper gives her ahead of handicapping.
A course Maiden winner over the slightly further 6f trip, BONA FORTUNA spent last year running super consistent in defeat in a suite of competitive Class 4 Handicaps and a final run for the year in a Class 2 Handicap at Nottingham. It meant he spent the year in the grip of the handicapper, but he has finally been given some leeway, starting this year eased 1lb when reappearing on the back of a 309 day break, and he has been eased a further pound again to 75 for that fair run in 6th of 10, beaten 3¾ lengths here at Brighton.
As such, he now goes off the same mark he last won from, when making his handicap debut at Windsor. This is an ease in grade, noticeably so, as it is a poorly contested 0-75, with only Charlie Johnston’s Mr Cool being rated in the 70s (71), with the rest rated in the 60s and 50s. A small field with a rank priced current favourite in Diomed Spirit, who is 1/14 on the turf, with the solitary win coming in a really poor race. Only Mr Cool ranks a danger for me; he remains well enough handicapped on paper, having won off 6lbs higher in the past, though he has been nudging up the weights for winning weak races, and not being overly convincing in the process. I think Mick Appleby’s charge proves too good for these here.
The race has a strong pace profile for a six-runner race, which suits him, so long as nobody hands him the lead. Handy is fine; he was second early when he won here. In front is the problem. Taking it up over the longer trip here last month, he was still upsides a furlong out and then ran the slowest closing two furlongs of the ten, his final furlong taking 13.42 seconds. The day he won here he tracked them instead and did it in 12.35. Same track, same trip, more than a second in it. From stall 6 he shouldn’t need anything clever either, with Pop Dancer and Mr Cool the more natural pace types and both drawn inside him. Let them cross, get him covered up, and I think he picks them up. Send him to dispute the lead and the goose is cooked early doors, ease in grade or not.
Paroda Diva (11/1, Ripon 16:48).
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: National Hunt Racing · Pace Bias · Place Terms
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