A flurry of runners from the tracker today, and all bar one of the six were of serious interest from a betting perspective. I’ve ended up going with three, all of which are runners we’ve followed closely and only one of which owes us. The second selection I couldn’t really be keener on.
La Rochette @ 12/1
La Rochette @ 12/11pt Each-Way | Newcastle 14:42
T: Tracy Waggott | J: David Nolan
Result: unplaced – 9/10 -2pts | In touch with leaders, headway over 2f out, weakened over 1f out (SP 16/1)
Seven Fires @ 3/1
Seven Fires @ 3/12pt Win | Newcastle 15:12
T: Jack Channon | J: George Bass
Result: Won – 1/11 +7pts | Made all, pestered throughout, ridden and edged right over 1f out, kept on final 110yds (SP 7/2)
Further Measure @ 11/2
Further Measure @ 11/22pt Win | Southwell 20:00
T: Mike Murphy | J: Callum Shepherd
Result: unplaced – 4/9 -2pts | Took keen hold, in touch with leaders early, bit short of room and midfield after 2f, in touch with leaders from 3f out, kept on inside final furlong (SP 11/2)
First up is one who bet just a couple of weeks ago in La Rochette. She moved over to the U.K. from France and remains fairly unexposed, specifically on the All Weather where she has ran to 2¾ lengths, 1¼ lengths and latterly 2¼ lengths in three of four runs, dropping 5lbs in the weights for the priviledge.
Her last run was a fair effort in 5th of nine, where she absolutely cruised through the race, but the slow pace up front meant they could kick on away from her as she picked up and she couldn’t close the gap. She’ll need a stronger pace today but I’m hopeful Thank The Lord and Sherlock will provide that.
She came to the U.K. from France and first ran on these shores on the turf in March last year off a mark of 86, but a summer of poor runs saw her rating fall dramatically, to the point she first ran on the all-weather over here in December off of 62. That first run was poor (over 6f) but both since have been positive and yet her mark has still been further eased to 57.
Seven Fires, who placed for us at 33/1 when running a huge race at Chelmsford at the end of January, finishing 3rd of eight btn 1¾ lengths. The logic that day was following Jack Channon debutantes showing promise, as his take their first run under little to no ask from their rider. When they show promise for their first start, you can expect a massive amount of improvement in them and she duly delivered.
She now heads to Newcastle, where Jack Channon has only sent eight maidens in Maiden or Novice races, recording five wins and two 2nds from the eight. I think it will take a real good one to be bang ready to have her beaten here. I don’t play Max Bets in Maiden races for the simple reason you never really know who or what you’re playing against, but she is the closest I’ve come to a Max Bet so far this year.
Jack Channon Maiden’s at Newcastle (AW)
| Date | Qualifier | Odds | Race Type | Position |
| 24/11/25 | Raveena | 3/1 | Maiden | 2/7 |
| 27/06/25 | Excellent Believe | 8/15 | Novices | 1/11 |
| 27/06/25 | Estrella Divina | 7/2 | Novices | 1/11 |
| 01/03/25 | Last Shamardal | 11/10 | Maiden | 1/5 |
| 18/03/24 | Cajetan | 5/6 | Novices | 1/7 |
| 02/11/23 | Staincliff | 3/1 | Maiden | 1/11 |
| 23/02/23 | Flash Bardot | 3/1 | Maiden | 6/7 |
| 03/02/23 | Flash Bardot | 11/2 | Novices | 2/5 |
Last goes Further Measure, who we had bet at long odds when going here at Southwell towards the end of January, when running 4/9 btn 2¼L over the 1m6f trip. That was a solid run, but not enough for me to follow him in at 11/4 at Kempton last time out, where he won a shade cosily despite the narrow neck margin would suggest.
The way he cruised into the lead the last day there was reminiscent of why I wanted to back him the previous run, as he has this knack of absolutely cruising through his races when he’s in good order, and this was as good as any. To see a horse come through to take up the running straightening for home with the jockey even asking a question, is quite a thing.
This time last year Further Measure recorded four wins in five runs, with the only defeat in that run coming under a desperately poor Warren Fentiman ride which was subject to a Stewards Enquiry. He is still a full 3lbs below the highest mark he won off of this time last year and on the evidence of that Kempton run, remains well ahead of the handicapper for now.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
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