A quieter day and my focus has turned full tilt onto Cheltenham Festival, which we’re just under a week out from, so there will be a reduction in posts and length of over the next week and a bit. However, two minimum bets today at prices worth playing.
Georgey @ 50/1
Georgey @ 50/1½pt Each-Way | Southwell 16:15
T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White | J: Sean Houlihan
Woolridge @ 10/1
1pt Win | Wolverhampton 20:00
T: Scott Dixon | J: Kieran O’Neill
Georgey could be a wildly bad shout on last viewing, where he was pulled up following almost running off into the car park at Hereford. However, with Phillip Hobbs record in Maiden Hurdles and possible excuses, I’ve had to have a tickle at massive odds.
Hobbs last ten in Maiden Hurdles at Southwell read 3213523224, with eight of ten in the frame. Further to that, of the last ten they have had Pulled-Up last time out, six of those have ran into the the money at the next time of asking.
Worth noting that Callum Pritchard reported he had hung badly left throughout that Hereford run and the vet later reported that he had lost his right fore shoe, which would explain his hanging throughout. The yard were in dismal form at the time too, but have really turned a corner and are firing them in all over the now.
Lastly is one for Scott Dixon, which isn’t a yard I often punt, but they have aquired an interesting one from Ireland who looks worthy of following running off the same mark he was given over the water.
His only run in handicap company come off of 65, where he ran 2nd of nine btn 2½ lengths, where the 1st, 4th and 5th all won next time out. As they tend to come over to the UK well treated, I’m surprised the handicapper has allowed him to continue off that same mark here.
He came from a small yard in Ireland, so no reason Scott Dixon can’t have him in at least the same vein of form.
Best of luck with your punting today,
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: National Hunt Racing · Non-Runner Rules · Place Terms
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