The racing continues to stumble on during the quietest time of year, and darts will continue to thrown sparingly. One runs today who has to be of interest as we backed him last month and were able to make a somewhat strong case for him at the weights. A strong jockey booking today means we keep the faith.
Took keen hold, towards rear, headway over 1f out, not pace to challenge
We backed Neptune Legend last month when he was with James Owen, where he went in an Apprentice Handicap but found the race not really ran ideally to suit. He has since switched back to Tony Carroll and goes back under the capable steer of Rossa Ryan, a big upgrade on last time out.
He does step up in trip slightly, to the 7f, which isn’t a move I’d have chosen specifically, but he has won twice and placed seven times over the distance, so I can’t scrub him for that fact when he looks so well handicapped.
We made a strong case for him at Wolverhampton last time when he ran over 6f off a mark of 55, 2lbs below the mark he won a 13-runner race over that course and distance last November. For his 4½ sixth of ten last time out under Mason Paetel he has been dropped a further 2lbs, now spinning out off of just 53.
He is a winner in waiting off of this weight, and with Rossa Ryan back in the saddle (he has won once and placed once from three rides), I’m hopeful they can get back to a winning combination.
Best of luck with your punting today.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races
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