A difficult day on the cards yesterday was one I ducked out of, and by the end of it I was glad to have done so. There’s a plethora of racing today, and it looks just as tough. There were a good few races I really wanted to tear apart but kept finding myself going round in circles — usually a good sign to ease off again.
The Lockinge Stakes at Newbury is the highlight, and it looks an absolutely knocking renewal. We were very nearly taking a punt with Jonquil at an each-way price, but he’s one who needs everything to fall right and in such a hot race I’ve left him alone.
From a day where I thought I’d be going to war with a good flurry of bets, I’ve somehow walked away with just the one — despite having six run from the Tracker alone.
NR
PATRICIA R was the standout of a serious double handful of ones I had taken to dig deep on today, so I’m hopeful it pays off come the end of it. That said, even this race had a few of interest.
She was a rare debut winner for Julie Camacho — just her 6th from some 200 — so instantly one I paid a bit more attention to. The filly cemented that interest when following up with a big run in a Doncaster Novice, beaten just a head by Roger Varian’s Khafiz.
Khafiz was subsequently given an OR of 94 on the back of that win, which he ran bang up to on numerous occasions last year. Camacho’s filly was inexplicably given an OR of just 75 off the same line. Three horses who finished well behind her that day have since run to or beyond that 75 mark, emphasising just how lenient the handicapper was being.
They ran her in one more Novice — a small event at Carlisle, which she won — before her handicap bow off 78. She disappointed there, never looked at it, and was duly put away for the season.
One angle that sharpens the case further — Ulysses progeny at Thirsk reads 8 winners from 40 (20%), 12 placed (30%), an A/E of 1.45 and a level-stakes profit of +17.85 to SP. A 45% premium to expectation at a track they clearly like, returning at backable prices. She fits a sire-track pattern that’s been quietly paying for years.
I don’t think she’ll have to have improved any year-on-year to be competitive here off that same mark, and she’s the kind of profile I’d expect to go on a run of two or three consecutive wins at some point. The yard form is quiet, which is the only knock I can put against her, but at an each-way price, with a profile I’d have running to a mark well clear of 75, she looks an outstanding bet. 1pt Each-Way at 16/1 (General, 1-4pl).
Others to note for the Tracker today — Pixie Diva (5/1, 15:37 Thirsk), Hi Corbett Court (6/1, 13:12 Navan), Golden Orbit (15/8, 14:00 Newbury), Jonquil (14/1, 14:35 Newbury), Sahara King (5/1, 15:45 Newbury), Dancing Gemini (33/1, 14:35 Newbury), Shabab Al Ahli (1/2, 16:02 Newmarket), Mr Mojo Risin (13/8, 14:10 Bangor-on-Dee) and Paddockwood (8/1, 15:20 Bangor-on-Dee).
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: Betting Odds · Going Descriptions · National Hunt Racing
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