Today’s dial has to be kept short and sweet – I’ve gone down too many a rabbit hole. Three bet from six taken. A few tricky cards and one or two genuinely awkward races… I’ve gone one Bet and two Min Bets. Stake accordingly.
Just the one bet yesterday, where we followed Dr Richard Newland’s first flat runner up at Musselburgh. Ran well, but another 2nd for them at the track — which must be some level of frustration, as that’s seven runner-ups from thirteen runners there! Still, the bet returned a positive but minor +1.2pts.
In touch with leaders, headway and pressed leader over 1f out, kept on but no chance with winner final 110yds
In rear, switched right and good headway over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final 110yds, won going away
Took keen hold, pressed leader, weakened quickly over 2f out
First one up is Resemblance for Michael Bell, who I wasn’t expecting back out this quickly. She’s a Bayside Boy filly who made her debut just two weeks ago, and I let her run that day on the basis that Michael Bell’s debutantes tend to come on in leaps for their first run. But Bayside Boy as a first-season sire is recording a notable strike rate (4 from 10, 1213020110), which is a significant early pointer, and the dam Rosebride was useful herself and has produced a couple of useful ones too. Michael Bell targets Haydock at this time of year, operating at around a 25% strike rate. The race isn’t weak, hence the reduced stake, but I’m expecting improvement on the debut showing.
Then Neptune Legend at Bath, a track where you always back one with course form. He’s versatile in terms of running style, very well weighted, in the perfect grade, and Rossa Ryan booked, who has won on him before. If he gets the tactics right, he’ll be very hard to beat. Tony Carroll has them flying too, though I do find his runners hard to judge — he’s my worst stable to bet to date, which is the only real concern here.
Lastly is Im Too Busy, which just about sums me up at the minute. Another Poets Word progeny in a Bumper, and a weak enough looking one at that. Small stable, but they’ve had winners in this sphere coming out of Point-to-Points, and the dam’s three offspring have all been winners, including in Bumpers. Only two places paying on each-way terms, so I’ve gone minimum stake Win Only here.
Others noted… Time For The Moon (2/1, Haydock 15:30) on pedigree in the race – looks clear of the rest by some way. Charmaine (15/2, Goodwood 15:42) on account of James Fanshawe + Goodwood – They do very well at Goodwood, especially so in handicaps. Everyoneknowsadave (10/1, Haydock 16:05) who looks well treated and has course form.
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
New to this? Read up on: Handicap Races · Best Odds Guaranteed · Betting Odds
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