No success yesterday — a couple of frustrating runs and one who just wasn’t good enough. Stormy Impact was probably the one who got away: painfully slow into stride, she gave herself a mountain to climb, especially so on that ground, then duly had a fair go at climbing it — beaten only 2¼l into 4th of 20.
Akkadian Thunder left me cursing, as David Nolan appeared to simply hang on for far too long on a horse who was very evidently lobbing along. When he was finally asked for a run he took a very easy 3½l third, but looked value for far better than the bare result — probably the eyecatcher of the day for me.
Brave New World was nowhere near good enough on the day, and looks one for handicaps a few races down the road.
In touch with leaders, not clear run and weakened from over 1f out
MOBADIR is another Ed Walker second-time-out runner, but one who looks a far better proposition. For a start, four of the last ten of these Goodwood 2TOs have won, with two more into the runner-up spot; and from 2024 onwards, those ridden by Kieran Shoemark read a staggering 7/24 — a near 30% strike rate, 66.6% in the frame, and a win P/L of +43.25pts. That P/L is flattered a touch by The Ginger Kid, who I hit the crossbar with the other day, mind.
A No Nay Never colt whose progeny love rain-softened ground, and out of the smart Oasis Dream mare Mobadra, rated 93 herself. There are plenty of positives to suggest he’ll fare far better than his 5½l 6th of 6 at Salisbury last month.
Others To Note — a few more I looked at without getting involved: Toyotomi (9/4, Goodwood 13:50), Light Of Paris (17/2, Goodwood 15:35), Flushing Meadows (20/1, Navan 15:27).
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Visit the Shop →Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
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