Daily Dial #104 – Two Bets at Salisbury

Another blank yesterday — another 2nd, this time Stede Bonnet, who somehow found one better in a rival that was previously 1/24 over obstacles. That’s an alarming fact, and it’ll see me stick a line through him. Between him and Lawn Ranger, they were two very confident punts, and the pair left a sour taste on the day. Racing has its ways of keeping us grounded, hey?

It wasn’t all for nothing, mind — a few caught the eye that are going straight in the book. First, EL PRESIDENTE at Windsor. The Gary and Josh Moore newcomer was a 40/1 chance with fifteen minutes to post and went off 6/1 — the money came, and he didn’t let it down, running on nicely into 4th on debut. The yard know the family, too: his half-sister Durdle Door (by Songandaprayer) won on handicap debut off 70. One to follow for a price next time, and a serious one if he turns up in a handicap still a maiden.

PHANTOM RECON, who I’d flagged in yesterday’s Others to note, justified the mention with a cracker of a run into 4th, again at 40/1. A Teofilo colt of George Scott’s, he did it the right way — thoroughly professional, responded when asked, and only tired late when hanging left as the third cut across his path. He’s a €340,000 yearling, closely related to the Group-placed French and German 10.5f-12.2f winner Tres Rock Women (RPR 110, all-weather included) and a half-brother to a French 1m4f winner. Scott runs at just a 5% strike with his debutants, which was enough to keep me off this time, but I’ll likely be on next time if the race and the price stack up.

Down at Leicester, JELLYSTONE PARK — another from the Others to note — scored nicely by four lengths, beating Michael Bell’s Heddon Street, a rare debut winner for that yard last time out and exactly the type I’ve been backing second time out lately. A debut winner for Bell marks Heddon Street up as above average, so even conceding the penalty I wasn’t minded to take him on — but Channon’s lad was well on top regardless. It franks Jellystone Park’s second start, too, when he was beaten only a nose by Hannon’s The Untamed, who was giving him 5lb that day. The one to really take forward, though, is the third from that race — FLIGHT CONTROL, who was giving Jellystone 7lb and went down by a length and a half. He’s since run in the Doncaster Novices (where we were on Brave New World), finishing 5th beaten 3¾l, again conceding weight to all bar the winner Shipbourne. That reads like a warm race even by Doncaster novice standards. Handed an opening mark of 82, he’s one I’ll fancy in a handicap off that figure.

And one for the radar that points squarely at today. The horse that did for Lawn Ranger, Nala The Lioness (14/1), took David Killahena and Graeme McPherson’s run since the turn of May to a staggering 10 winners from their last 24 runners — a 41.5% strike, with winners in there at 9/1, 20/1 and 33/1. The split reads 7 of 21 over jumps, 2 from 2 on the Flat and 1 from 1 on the all-weather. They’ve two declared today, both over jumps at Southwell: Granite Sands (16:00, 9/1) in a Maiden Hurdle and Iamcelestialgift (17:35) in a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle. On that kind of form, I wouldn’t be opposing either of them.

THUNDEROUS LOVE featured as a selection on 9th May, when running a fairly unfortunate 7/18 btn 3½L in a Class 4 Handicap at Ascot — a race that’s since seen three of those who finished behind her go on to win next time out, suggesting it was a competitive enough heat. She’s since dropped 3lb in the weights from that run, for failing to stay over 7f and getting a messy ride in an Apprentice Handicap at Goodwood — both forgivable. Two wins and a half-length 2nd from seven course runs, with form on soft ground, this looks as good an opportunity as any to add to that tally in what is a weak enough Class 5 Handicap. 2pt Win at 9/2 (Bet365, William Hill).

The other is a lesser-known punt, in the shape of another Ed Walker 2TO — his Starman gelding COSMIC JIVE. He’s a half-brother to the useful Miss Fascinator, of Roger Varian’s a couple of years back, and by a sire I really like. Interestingly, only ten Starman progeny have run at Salisbury, with none winning — but their figures there read 0243852233, six of the ten finishing in the frame. He obviously needs to put a no-show on debut behind him, as this race looks fairly deep, but that’s not at all unheard of for this yard and worth a minimum bet at long odds. ½pt Each-Way at 66/1, 1/5 3 places (PaddyPower, Betway).

Others To Note — I wanted to play Secret Handsheikh in the 20:51 at Brighton for John Gallagher (a prolific trainer at the track), a course specialist (2312135112433) who’s seriously well handicapped — but he’s done all his winning from the front, making every yard of it. With Mick’s Spirit opposing, who also likes to lead, I think they’ll cut each other’s throats and set it up for one held up behind them. Hopefully catch him back at Brighton on a more appealing day. Besieged (8/13, 16:13 Salisbury) is one I’ve been watching with interest on pedigree. He takes on a debutant worth a watch in Centrum, a full brother to Enable. A decent race to have an eye on.

Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!