A midnight airport run to collect one of the kiddos from a Morocco trip — miles behind here. A few days skipped without being able to justify a bet at the prices, but a decent Saturday card has thrown a few up I’m happy to chance. One each from Ascot, which has seen a brutal high-draw advantage this week, and one from Doncaster. The Ascot race is obviously competitive, but one I didn’t want to let pass — and then I saw the trainer stat, which is explained below, and that sealed it.
I waxed lyrical about the two on Wednesday but found myself on the wrong side again. Urban Lion was a baffling one, drawn in an ideal spot in stall 20 but instantly switched to the complete opposite far side of the track, undoubtedly burning a good bit out of the tank in the process — only for the 1st, 2nd and 4th to come from his original near side. A tactic I can’t begin to explain, and no surprise it didn’t pay off. Cheshire Dancer ran a good enough race but just wasn’t quite good enough.
Bit short of room soon after start, towards near side, towards rear throughout
Ducked right start, midfield but in touch with leaders, headway and pressed leader over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, headed towards finish
Taking a chance on another Hugo Palmer runner. He has his horses running well enough, and a few have gone close enough this week to suggest one should pop in soon. I’m wary of Where Love Lives, who beat Palmer’s Coventry runner-up Adaay Of Scarlett, but I fancy SAVAGE MARINER to build on a cracking debut run when runner-up to Albany winner Libertango. Palmer’s record with newcomers is excellent over their first and second runs, but it’s the second-time-out-when-runner-up-on-debut stat that’s the real standout — 15 wins and 39 places from 52 runners since 2018, a 29% win and 75% place strike.
The other is FLIGHT CONTROL, who I’d had my eye on since he ran behind Jellystone Park under a penalty. That interest was bolstered when he ran a sound 3¾-length 5th behind Shipbourne — the race we bet Brave New World and subsequently suggested would work out rather warm, and it has. Flight Control was giving weight away to all bar Shipbourne, who looks a genuine Group performer. Dropping into a handicap for the first time now, and back level at the weights for the first time since his winning debut at 80/1, this looks a belting chance off a mark of just 80 in an open enough 0-80. The favourite, Toastmaster, has had plenty of chances to win a race but remains 0 from 9, and the second favourite is one of Hannon’s who keeps finding a way to get beat.
Others to note: Wee Mary (4/1, Ayr 14:18), Connecteo (7/2, Down Royal 14:41) and Divine Knight (7/2, Ayr 14:53)
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhat if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Betting Odds · Draw Bias · Non-Runner Rules
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