Very tough pill to swallow yesterday, with the two earlier runners who I’d just run out of time on, both bolting in. Needless to say, the only selection who made the board reared coming out of the stalls, butted heads with a rival and gave himself no chance. It somewhat softened the blow to see so many had taken the positive vouch for both on the post with time to spare, and bet accordingly. Well done those of you.
Today’s cards aren’t too bad for a Sunday, though they didn’t appeal for a bet as much as I initially thought they would. The Curragh is by far where the best of the action is, and is my watch for the afternoon.
Today’s Stat Attack board is up, also – it is only for pointing purposes, but it has been in rattling form of late, notching 15 winners from the last 53 qualifiers. It’s well worth a look for some decent trends with where certain trainers target their runners.
Never better than midfield
Sweating, briefly led, soon in touch with leaders, dropped to midfield after 3f, weakened from under 4f out (jockey said mare stopped quickly)
First of two bets chanced with Billy Lee up is LOHOOBB for Michael Grassick. It’s one which bucks the trend for a common angle, as this is a Too Darn Hot colt who has recently switched from the UK to Ireland. I’m usually betting these in handicaps going the other way, but I have had my eyes on this colt for a few months from when running in handicaps for Owen Burrows. He is out of Zoowraa, a dam who has produced three very useful types – Kananee (Exceed And Excel), Maamora (Dubawi) and Boosala (Dawn Approach) were all rated 100+ – so with Lohoobb entering handicaps from an OR in the mid 70s, he looked worth keeping tabs on.
He ran to a fair level in five handicaps for Burrows, running with credit without really threatening, but on switching to Grassick, he really caught the eye on stable debut when running 5l 4th of 11 at Naas under Billy Lee. He was given an extremely tentative ride, cruised through the race without an ask and was last off the bridle when the bird had long flown. It looked to me like a ride with another day in mind, and I think they’d have been somewhat surprised how well he travelled. Today is an ease in grade, into a 0-80 from a 0-85, and this looks considerably weaker even by 0-80 standards.
Lastly is Ken Condon’s Marmeladova, who I was surprised only received a 3lb rise for her win at Leopardstown last time out. She only won by a neck and it wasn’t the deepest race by any means, but she was twice cut off for a run and still managed to win with some in hand. The key to her looks to be the summer ground and a truly run race, which I’m hoping she’ll get here up in grade. The drop in trip doesn’t look a negative, with form over the mile already in the book – she’d have won a Fillies Maiden at Navan last year over the mile with an extra stride, in a race where she was given a mountain to climb. She’ll need a bit of luck, but she’s a seriously nice type on this ground who should have this mark well within her.
Speckles (5/1, Curragh 13:45), Anchor Road (4/1, Curragh 14:15), Chicago Call (14/1, Curragh 14:50), Some Nightmare (9/1, Chepstow 14:06) and Hallo Spaceboy (9/1, Deauville 16:50).
Best of luck all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
New to this? Read up on: Handicap Races · Best Odds Guaranteed · Betting Odds
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