Three cards today but very limited stuff and not a lot to get excited about. Most disappointed with Kempton card, which I will ordinarily spend an age on, but it’s a dismal betting card. Two chances stood out to me enough at the prices, so I’m going with.
Yesterday’s four…
Four selections yesterday and three ran crackers, one of which doing the business to land a nice 10/1 punt with 1pt each-way attached.
Ring Of Gold went first up for us in the Classified Stakes at Newcastle. He overcome a massive pace bias to be the only one making anything of it from the rear to finish a strong finishing 2nd, beaten just ¾ Length. He’ll likely be a short enough price next time in similar moderate company but a matter of time before he is winning again.
Amazonian Dream ran a mighty strange race, but finished like a train at Southwell. He ran in midfield throughout the most part, then looked likely to fall out the back of the telly, before finding his feet again and rattling home. If he hadn’t of hit that flat spot he’d have likely hosed up, which is frustrating. He was an eyecatcher when last seen too, so you’d think he will have his day soon.
Then went the grey Smokey Malone, again at Southwell, and he proved his course form to see of a rancid priced odds-on jolly in Dollar’s Dream. He won it a shade cosily in the end and was only improving for the further they went. A nice enough winner at 10/1.
The less said about Lac De Constance the better. Never looked like getting going and unseated Tristan Durrell at the sixth. The only real dampener of the four, though.
Klitschko 14/1 | 1pt EW
14:20 Catterick
14:20 CatterickT: Lucinda Hughes
J: Brian Hughes
Result: Placed – 5/15 +1.8pts
Midfield, headway before last (usual 2 out), went fourth run-in, no extra inside final 110yds (SP 12/1)
Metaverse 13/2 | 2pt Win
16:08 Lingfield
16:08 LingfieldT: David Menuisier
J: Tom Marquand
Result: unplaced – 6/9 -2pt
Raced wide early, in touch with leaders, no extra inside final furlong (SP 17/2)
Today’s selections…
One chanced for an each-way at Catterick who looks primed to repeat last years pattern at this time of year and then one at Lingfield, who goes in a competitive enough race but looks like a seriously live chance to improve on last time out under a vastly improved rider.
Klitschko is the first up, who looks like he could be bidding to complete a near mirror image of last years efforts. When he moved to Lucinda Hughes from Alan King, they gave him a couple of minor efforts over the new year period, got his mark down to 111 and then he scooted up at Sedgefield.
Well, over this new year he has been given a couple of quiet runs, they’ve got his mark down to (you guessed it) 111 for a race that doesn’t look overly deep and ground looks like being ideal. With Bet365 paying 5 places as current number of runners stand, he looks a knocking EW bet.
Then up goes Metaverse, who looked the best bet of the day to me. The race does look fairly competitive, but he goes in a good form on the back of a very narrow defeat where his rider that day (Rab Havlin) was given a lesson in a finish and he goes off the same mark he won off in a highly competitive Class 3 0-90 Handicap over this C&D last April.
His record over 7f on the All Weather reads 121032, with the fluff in the middle being a race which was over from the start. With his LTO neck defeat looking like a case of being outridden, I loved the jockey booking of Tom Marquand here. He has recorded three wins from five rides for David Menuisier on the AW and ranks as a marked upgrade on Rab Havlin.
Other notes…
A short and sweet notes section for today, with only one other who even moderately tickled my fancy in Invincible Speed at Kempton (17:30), but he has been made a non-runner (Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)).
A rather quiet day of it, which will hopefully prop up a bit of interest for future purposes in the replays.
Best of luck with your punting today,
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Race Class Levels · Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting
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