Plenty of racing about today, but one very obvious bet which really leapt out and jabbed me on the nose. With odds about this one, I’ve taken a bold stance to play him Win Only, as I think there is enormous value in him.
The rest of it looks okay for a watching brief for future purposes, but didn’t really excite me in any way from a betting perspective.
Frustrating to watch Further Measure oblige at Kempton yesterday, who was a selection on DD#27 on 22nd January, where he ran a huge race at 22/1 for us but finished just out of the frame, beaten 2¼ lengths.
He was a far shorter price for yesterday though and went in an Apprentice Handicap, which have given me the burnt fingers one too many time, so I let him run despite being a very obvious well-handicapped horse. He obliged by a neck and that will be him having gotten away from me the now, I imagine.
I try and follow these in where we can catch them right, but you have to draw a line on a price sometimes and this was one of those where I didn’t fancy taking the chance.
The one selection from Monday, in 50/1 shot Mister Knockout, well… Less said the better. He ran no sort of race dropped in trip and justified his price. Not one I’ll be keeping tabs on for any positive.
Mr Baloo @ 12/1
Mr Baloo @ 12/12pt Win | Lingfield 16:15
T: Richard Hannon | J: Joe Leavy
Result: unplaced – 4/10 -2pt | Slowly into stride, towards rear, headway over 1f out, not pace to challenge (SP 11/1)
One I’ve been toying with for a bet every time he ran over Christmas and New Year, but for one reason or another, I kept talking myself out of. Thankfully he didn’t oblige in any of those, and as such has continued to fall in the weights. Now, I’m hoping, is the time to strike.
Joe Leavy, who takes the ride, has built up some relationship with this Mr Baloo, who have finished in the frame on all eight runs they have paired up with on the All Weather, winning four of the eight.
They won off of OR’s ranging from 78 through to 87, and today go off a lenient looking 81. More interestingly though, is this is the lowest grade they have competed in (0-80), despite having ran off of lower marks in the past.
Mr Baloo’s record over the mile on the AW reads 12138, with the 8th placed run being an 8th of 14 in a highly valuable and ultra competitive Class 2 Handicap at Kempton where he ran off of 92 last September. Put that into context of today, where he runs off of 81 in a 0-80 Class 4.
The race isn’t a gimme by any means, but I’m staggered he is a double-figure price. He looks an absolutely outstanding bet, which would be very easy to play Each-Way, but I think there is too much value in him not to try and make the most of, so I’m going hard.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias · Race Class Levels
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