Great to see Flat racing back on the turf at The Curragh yersterday. The U.K. Flat Season gets underway at Doncaster a week on Saturday and it is getting to the point where you can almost smell the change in the air.
With the Flat season in sight and the middle ground between both Cheltenham and Aintree, this is always my quietest time on the betting front. The level of racing, across both codes, takes a considerable drop for a period and the betting is tough to beat, so posts and bets take a noticeable dip.
The fact today’s only bet comes in a Class 6 Classified Stakes on the All Weather says it all, really.
Phils Dream @ 4/1
Phils Dream @ 4/12pt Win | Wolverhampton 20:00
T: John C McConnell | J: Hollie Doyle
Result: Won – 1/8 +10pts | Took keen hold, in touch with leaders, headway to lead over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong (SP 5/1)
One of John McConnell’s Irish raiders we chanced in January, when he brought over Phils Dream and Slowdownbarney. The latter ran a poor race as an 11/4 favourite, but Phils Dream went off a 12/1 shot and was only beaten a neck 2nd, in what turned out to be a competitive enough 0-60 handicap.
He was beaten by Rogue De Vega, who in winning completed a three-timer and made it four wins from seven runs on the All-Weather. In 3rd was Spendmore Lane, who has since gone up 9lbs in the weights having won twice from four runs.
McConnell now brings him back, but this time for a noteable drop in competitiveness with this Class 6 Classified Stakes, the first UK Classified Stakes he has entered since he won one here at Wolverhampton in 2020, when one called Cliara won by four lengths at 9/2.
Hollie Doyle retains the ride, who doesn’t have an overly strong record at this grade, but she at least knows what to expect having had a steer on him before.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
New to this? Read up on: Betting Odds · National Hunt Racing · Place Terms
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