The start of the Flat season at Doncaster continues today, with a few less competitive races which makes for greater betting appeal. We go there for one outsider who looks a worthy chance at a great Each-Way price, as well as one chanced in a small field over obstacles on a decent enough Ascot card.
It was great to watch the Flat season get underway yesterday, although I was rather frustrated with how it unfolded for the only selection on the day. Galeron, who has shown to run so well from off the pace, was sent forward early and had to try and keep up with the early pace, which saw his effort fizzle out fairly early. It was a strange tactic in a race which looked to be ideally suited to him.
Anyway, onto today.
Prominent, detached from 10th, weakened after 4 out, tailed off
Raced centre, midfield, headway when groups merged over 2f out, weakened inside final furlong
The first up of the two today is 12 year old Moroder at Ascot, who was well fancied to run well in the Grimthorpe back in February before the ground turned against him and he ultimately ran no sort of race. An out and out Spring horse who always comes into his own at this time of the year, this looks a great bit of placement in a far easier 0-120 Class 4 Handicap, the first time he has dropped into this low a grade in open company.
The unexposed Noahsgreatrainbow is the obvious danger, but if Moroder is in the same form he was touted to be in by his handler back in February, he’ll be in the mix off of a generous mark of 120. This is a race lacking in depth as well as numbers, with just five going to post, so with him likely to get the faster ground he likes, dropping in grade and in a small field, he could really dominate this from the start and prove hard to peg back. I rank Seamus Mullins’ old charge worthy of a minimum bet here at a great price.
The second selection of the day goes an hour later, this time on the Flat at Doncaster, with a lovely looking filly trained by Gemma Tutty, who has had her runners in good order since the turn of the year. She sends Singoura, a huge Rajasinghe filly who caught my eye on both occasions she run at Doncaster last year, and I can’t ignore her off of bottom weight at a huge price here.
She made her turf debut over today’s course and distance last April, on the back of a 117-day break following her Maiden win on second start. It was a small five-runner race, where she was mighty fresh and completely over-exerted herself early doors, but once she settled into the race she travelled beautifully.
She was beaten 1 length by Frankies Dream, who went on to win a 22-runner York handicap off of 7lbs higher, a race in which Singoura finished down the field in, but had boiled over in the preliminaries and was treated for post-race ataxia – a rare, acute neurological condition characterized by incoordination, wobbliness, or loss of balance immediately following intense exercise, often linked to severe heat stress.
She returned to Doncaster next time out, where she ran with credit despite being keen enough again, when beaten 3¼ 4th behind War Howl, who went on to win at Ascot next time out, defying a 6lb rise. Two solid runs at Doncaster, despite overdoing herself in both, suggests she can go best here and in a nice big field, she has a good chance of getting into a nice early rhythm, and she is now a full 8lbs lower in the weights than she was for both of her previous Doncaster runs. Connor Beasley rides, a steer I like and who does well for Gemma Tutty. I think we could see long odds outrun here.
Others to note…
I looked more than twice at Richard Hannon’s An Outlaws Grace (11/1, Doncaster 14:55) stepping back up to 7f, who I think may even want a mile. He has mainly run over 6f and has found it all coming to an end too soon. This yard were in rattling form yesterday, and this one could be dangerously handicapped. However, I was put off by how rarely he was seen last year, so I’m hoping to see him run well in defeat in hope of catching him next time.
I very near punted Yes Indeed (15/2, Ascot 15:40), who goes back under Sean Bowen, who guided him to success on both of his first two runs for Martin Keighley last year. He is far more exposed than his rivals here, but there’s a chance he could get left alone out in front here and should that come to fruition, they may well struggle to reel him back in.
The last of interest was one we’ve backed before who goes for the Ulster National, in Shannon Royale (25/1, Downpatrick 16:27), who I’m convinced is brutally well handicapped. However, he has bled last twice and on that alone, I couldn’t touch him over this marathon test.
Best of luck with your punting today.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias · Race Class Levels
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