Grand National day at Aintree, and for the first time in many years I’ve been absolutely set in a selection from a long way out, and I’m staggered he is still such a big price. Hard to say you’re confident about a bet in the Grand National at the best of times, let alone on such a quiet run we’re experiencing, but I’m adamant he will be bang there with a clear round. Added to the one bet at Aintree is one from the Tracker at Bellewstown, who was a huge eyecatcher last time out.
Fingers crossed the poor run can be overcome soon enough, but it’s important to maintain perspective and understand such runs are totally normal and have to be expected, especially so when backing many at bigger prices. Maintaining a cool head and keeping emotions level are the absolute key. There have been a few seriously good and fruitful spells since re-launching in December, and we were due a change of fortune. The law of averages dictates that no such good run will go unmet with an equal – and that is what we’re in the now. Keep calm, carry on.
Wore hood to post, midfield, hampered 2nd, not fluent 3 out, lost place before 2 out, kept on one pace from last
Never better than midfield
Favori De Champdou is one readers from January will remember, as we had him win at double figures when scooting up in a romp in a Cross Country at Cheltenham. He had done similar on his previous outing too, albeit a far more appealing 66/1. When he gets his jumping right he looks an almighty capable animal, and I think he has it well within him to cut it in the National. He got it all wrong in the Irish National at Fairyhouse last year, but his improvement since suggests he has come on a fair leap from there. I’ve been set since January that he was my bet for this, and the form around that run suggests there was plenty of context to it, also.
Simmering Seas was making her stable debut for Derek McCormack when last seen, where she was badly hampered to the point she was very nearly brought down. The fact she overcame that to be beaten just 4¾ lengths in a competitive looking 0-70 suggests she was going to go extremely close that day, so I think this will be the last chance to catch her on a lowly mark of just 58, especially so considering this is a marked drop in grade down into a 0-60. Seamie Heffernan retains the ride from last time out.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias · Each-Way Betting
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