Daily Dial #71 – Aintree Grand National and One Bet at Bellewstown

Grand National day at Aintree, and for the first time in many years I’ve been absolutely set in a selection from a long way out, and I’m staggered he is still such a big price. Hard to say you’re confident about a bet in the Grand National at the best of times, let alone on such a quiet run we’re experiencing, but I’m adamant he will be bang there with a clear round. Added to the one bet at Aintree is one from the Tracker at Bellewstown, who was a huge eyecatcher last time out.

Fingers crossed the poor run can be overcome soon enough, but it’s important to maintain perspective and understand such runs are totally normal and have to be expected, especially so when backing many at bigger prices. Maintaining a cool head and keeping emotions level are the absolute key. There have been a few seriously good and fruitful spells since re-launching in December, and we were due a change of fortune. The law of averages dictates that no such good run will go unmet with an equal – and that is what we’re in the now. Keep calm, carry on.

Silks
Favori De Champdou
Aintree · 16:00
40/11pt Each-Way
Trainer Gordon Elliott
Jockey Danny Gilligan
SP40/1
Result6/34 btn 12L | +7pts

Wore hood to post, midfield, hampered 2nd, not fluent 3 out, lost place before 2 out, kept on one pace from last

Silks
Simmering Seas
Bellewstown · 17:55
5/12pt Win
Trainer Derek McCormack
Jockey Seamie Heffernan
SP15/2
Result10/15 btn 6½L | -2pts

Never better than midfield


Favori De Champdou is one readers from January will remember, as we had him win at double figures when scooting up in a romp in a Cross Country at Cheltenham. He had done similar on his previous outing too, albeit a far more appealing 66/1. When he gets his jumping right he looks an almighty capable animal, and I think he has it well within him to cut it in the National. He got it all wrong in the Irish National at Fairyhouse last year, but his improvement since suggests he has come on a fair leap from there. I’ve been set since January that he was my bet for this, and the form around that run suggests there was plenty of context to it, also.

Simmering Seas was making her stable debut for Derek McCormack when last seen, where she was badly hampered to the point she was very nearly brought down. The fact she overcame that to be beaten just 4¾ lengths in a competitive looking 0-70 suggests she was going to go extremely close that day, so I think this will be the last chance to catch her on a lowly mark of just 58, especially so considering this is a marked drop in grade down into a 0-60. Seamie Heffernan retains the ride from last time out.

Best of luck with your punting today,

Scott
What does "Each-Way" mean? How do I follow this bet?

An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1PT Each-Way = 2PT total from your bank.

The Place part pays out if your horse finishes in the places (usually top 3–4 depending on field size and bookmaker). The odds for the place portion are a fraction of the win odds — typically 1/4 or 1/5.

So when the card shows 1PT Each-Way, that means 2PT comes from your bank — 1PT on the win, 1PT on the place. If you’d prefer to risk just 1PT from your bank, stake it as a ½PT Each-Way instead. The win part pays at the full advertised odds if the horse finishes first.

Always shop around for the best odds — even a point or two extra on a long-priced selection makes a big difference over time.

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