One play today, on what is a quiet enough day of it. Lingfield I struggled to get hopes up on any of it, so let that run with no interest, but one race at Wolverhampton pricked my ears on account of one I’ve been waiting for.
Havana Sky 8/1 | 1pt Win
20:30 Wolverhampton
T: Ed Dunlop
J: Edward Greatrex
A four-year-old I’ve kept tabs on since a huge run over today’s course and distance (6f) in October, where he had trouble in-running on the inside rail and was then brutally smashed up when switching for a run on the outside.
He done mighty well to finish just four lengths down to Papa Cocktail that day, who has since run solidly to a mark of 77 since, and wasn’t disgraced in a 0-90 Class 3 Handicap. Having run that off a mark of 68, today’s mark of 71 should still be within his ceiling.
His C&D form reads 11513 – The 5th being a solid enough run up in class, in a race where the form looks extremely strong, and the 3rd being the aforementioned hard luck story, again where the form holds up.
I’ve let him run every time since in hope of catching back over C&D, and regretted that somewhat when he obliged at Lingfield, but a 1lb ease by the handicapper I think cut him too much slack for a small field.
Today’s big field should really suit him, guaranteed to get a good gallop and that should see him come home strong. Obviously, he needs a bit of luck in-running, but that’s why I’ve only chanced him for a minimum bet.
Result: Unplaced – 12/12 btn 24L -1pt
Took keen hold, midfield, hampered after 1f, weakened over 1f out (jockey said gelding ran too free) (SP 8/1)
Other Notes
I was close to having a play in the Bumper at Plumpton (15:30), but the odds about them just didn’t stack up either way.
Anthony Honeyball is one I always keep tabs on in Bumpers, on account of an across the boards strike rate of 20% across some 450 runners, and he runs debutant Western Charm (6/1).
The yards strike rate holds up in Mares’ Bumpers (20%), increases to 25% for those first time out (FTO) and increases to 42% when applied to Plumpton, with 11 wins from 26 (4 from 9 FTO).
This looks a warm enough race, though. I really liked the debut run of Jamie Snowden’s Flying Pimpernel (11/1) and that form looks healthy, and the trainer has mentioned how he thinks she wants give in the ground, which she’ll get today.
The race doesn’t lack in depth, either. Skittish goes for Hughie Morrison and has an interesting piece of form, and Neil Mulholland runs the 2/1 fav, who too looks worthy of the price.
I wanted a wee bit more juice in the price about both Western Charm or Flying Pimpernel. If I’d gotten either I’d have probably had a little play, but I had to make it a watching brief only. This should be a race which gives some good pointers going forward, though.
All the best today.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: Best Odds Guaranteed · Betting Odds · Going Descriptions
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