Log In
Join the LedgerLedger
Racecourse Guides›National Hunt›Chepstow
Racecourse Guide

Chepstow
National Hunt

Piercefield, Monmouthshire · home of the Coral Welsh Grand National

⬤ National Hunt
Turf
Left-Handed
Severe Undulations
Shape
Nested Oval ~2m per circuit
Track Type
Undulating, Severe
Fences
11 per circuit
Hurdles
7 per circuit
Home Straight
5 fences
Run-in
250yd steep downhill
Direction
Left-handed
Course Highlight
Welsh Grand National Premier H’cap
Also at Chepstow

Chepstow also stages Flat turf racing. Read the Flat racecourse guide →

Course Overview

What is Chepstow like as a jumps track?

Chepstow’s jumps course is nested inside its left-handed Flat circuit, giving it tighter, sharper bends than the wider turns used on the Flat. The severe undulations that define the whole site are, if anything, more consequential over jumps: several sources independently describe the view from the winning post as resembling “the ocean with large waves and swells,” with the highest point on the back straight and a further uphill section on the home bend. The run-in compounds the challenge — 250 yards, and notably steep downhill, a widely cited cause of jumping errors at the final fence since horses arrive there at real speed.

Chepstow opened in 1926 and staged its first jump racing the following March. The Welsh Grand National — originally run at Ely Racecourse in Cardiff from 1895, then Newport from 1948 — moved to Chepstow in 1949, cementing the track’s National Hunt identity ever since. On quick ground the course rides fast and true; on soft or heavy it “strings horses out like washing,” giving Chepstow a reputation as a winter mudlark’s track and a recognised stamina proving-ground ahead of Cheltenham and Aintree.

The Chase Course

  • Circuit Left-handed, nested inside the Flat course with sharper bends, ~2m per circuit
  • Fences 11 per circuit — two open ditches and a water jump; five of the eleven are sited in the home straight itself
  • Run-in 250 yards, steeply downhill — a well-documented cause of jumping errors at the final fence
  • Run style Severe undulations reward genuine stamina; front-runners hold a strong, well-quantified edge (see Pace Bias below)

The Welsh Grand National Course

  • Distance Extended in 2019 from 3m5f110y to the current 3m6½f, moving the start further back and adding one extra fence — 23 in total
  • Not a separate track The “extended” course is the standard chase circuit run further back from the same finish, not a structurally different layout
  • Sponsorship Coral has backed the race since 1973 — the longest-running sponsorship in jump racing
Notable Races

When does Chepstow race?

Premier Handicap · 27 December
Coral Welsh Grand National
3m6½f, 23 fences. Wales’s richest race and Chepstow’s defining Christmas-period identity, run every year the day after Boxing Day. The 2025 renewal was worth £170,000.
Grade 2 · December
Finale Juvenile Hurdle
About 2m, 8 hurdles. Run on the Welsh National undercard for 3yo novice hurdlers; downgraded from Grade 1 in 2022.
Grade 2 · October
Persian War Novices’ Hurdle
About 2m3½f, 10 hurdles. Named after the triple Champion Hurdle winner (1968-70).
Listed · October
Robert Mottram Memorial Trophy
Novice chase over about 2m3½f. First run in 2011 (Cue Card won the inaugural running) and awarded Listed status in 2017.
Pace Bias

The Number That Matters

Chepstow has one of the starkest, most thoroughly quantified pace biases in British jump racing. In handicap chases, 68 of 96 winners (71%) either led or raced close to the pace — from just 47% of runners. Front-runners’ win rate sits at 25% against only 5.7% for hold-up horses, an edge of more than four times, with an A/E value of 2.16 for leaders against below 1.00 for every other running style.

Run Style Bias — Handicap Chases

▲ Front-runners

25% Strong (A/E 2.16)

─ Prominent

46% Strong

▼ Hold-up

5.7% Very Weak

The likely explanation is structural: five of the eleven fences sit in the home straight, with the first part downhill, which rewards a horse racing prominently far more than one held up for a late challenge. This is one of the clearest, best-evidenced pace angles anywhere in this guide series — treat it accordingly.

Statistics · Since 2010

Which trainers and jockeys win most at Chepstow?

TrainerRunsWinsWin%PlacesPlace%A/EP/L
1 Nicholls, P F59512821.51%26444.37%0.83-174.79
2 Williams, Evan7118511.96%20929.40%0.95-23.91
3 Hobbs, P J / White, J4638317.93%19642.33%1.02-29.62
4 Pipe, D E3426117.84%13338.89%1.10+14.84
5 Twiston-Davies, N A3224614.29%11736.34%0.94-40.61
6 Curtis, Miss Rebecca2944414.97%12040.82%0.79-49.16
7 Williams, Miss Venetia3694311.65%11731.71%0.81-124.92
8 O’Neill, Jonjo and AJ4024210.45%11929.60%0.77-170.69
9 Skelton, Daniel3394112.09%12436.58%0.77-106.40
10 Vaughan, Tim433347.85%10925.17%0.83-171.89
11 O’Brien, Fergal2583112.02%8131.40%0.78-64.28
12 Mulholland, N P2623011.45%6524.81%1.13-69.57
13 Bowen, Peter / Michael2672910.86%6825.47%1.04-63.97
14 King, A1932613.47%7639.38%0.83-75.21
15 Lacey, T1342619.40%5742.54%1.08+47.84
16 Bailey, K C1692414.20%5633.14%0.85-66.06
17 Scott, J1932311.92%6332.64%1.02-58.04
18 George, T R1952211.28%6231.79%0.81-107.91
19 Lavelle, Miss E C1662213.25%5533.13%0.84-54.41
20 Henderson, N J1292217.05%5038.76%0.67-42.79

Chepstow NH, since 2010. David Pipe is the pick — 61 winners from 342 at 17.84%, A/E 1.10 and +£14.84, the only yard here in level-stakes profit — with Philip Hobbs fair at 1.02. Paul Nicholls has the most winners (128) but at A/E 0.83 and £174.79 down, the biggest loss on the page. Evan Williams is the reliable local at A/E 0.95. Below the table, Mrs D A Hamer has returned +£17.10 from 62 runners at A/E 1.65 and D Brace 1.46 from 62. Oppose B J Llewellyn (207 runners, A/E 0.72) and Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (402, A/E 0.77, £170.69 down).
chepstow NH · Current trainers, since 2010
JockeyRunsWinsWin%PlacesPlace%A/EP/L
1 Cobden, Harry3167222.78%13241.77%0.94-70.01
2 Twiston-Davies, Sam3635615.43%13838.02%0.83-132.48
3 Bowen, Sean P2885117.71%9131.60%1.14+13.98
4 Wedge, Adam3995012.53%12330.83%0.97-17.48
5 Sheehan, Gavin2073617.39%7536.23%1.09-7.02
6 Skelton, Harry2303013.04%9641.74%0.71-64.71
7 Jones, Ben R1542516.23%5938.31%1.05+18.41
8 Best, J A303247.92%6320.79%0.99-115.77
9 Sheppard, Stan1612414.91%5332.92%1.04-30.14
10 O’Neill, Jonjo (Jr)1632213.50%5835.58%0.81-62.82
11 Williams, Lorcan1362014.71%4734.56%1.08-49.92
12 Bellamy, Tom1731810.40%5028.90%0.77-86.33
13 Noonan, David G213177.98%4420.66%0.80-136.26
14 Deutsch, Charlie1641710.37%4527.44%0.77-77.82
15 Bowen, James C1391712.23%3625.90%0.82-47.55
16 Powell, Brendan246156.10%5823.58%0.57-134.25
17 Dunne, R T177158.47%4223.73%1.10-15.92
18 Nolan, Michael G169158.88%5029.59%0.75-88.14
19 Gethings, Ciaran157138.28%3622.93%0.78-96.22
20 Burke, Jonathan133139.77%3828.57%0.87-50.30

Chepstow NH, since 2010. Sean Bowen is the standout of the regulars — 51 winners from 288 at 17.71%, A/E 1.14 and +£13.98 — with Adam Wedge close to fair at 0.97 and Lee Edwards above it (A/E 1.28 from 103). Harry Cobden leads on winners (72) at A/E 0.94. The value below the table is unusually strong: Charlie Price has returned +£20.38 from 61 rides at A/E 1.89, S M Quinlan 1.83 from 45 and Joe Anderson 1.76 from 44. Oppose R P McLernon, whose 160 Chepstow rides return A/E 0.49, and Brendan Powell (246, A/E 0.57).
chepstow NH · Current riders, since 2010
Sire Statistics · Since 2010

Which sires do best at Chepstow?

SireRunsWinsWin%PlacesPlace%A/EP/L
1 Flemensfirth (USA)4356715.40%15936.55%1.05+96.49
2 Kayf Tara4575411.82%13930.42%0.84-153.47
3 Oscar (IRE)3314814.50%10832.63%1.01-45.63
4 Milan402399.70%10325.62%0.77-106.88
5 King’s Theatre (IRE)1993417.09%7236.18%1.07-43.28
6 Shantou (USA)1563321.15%7145.51%1.17-3.15
7 Westerner2493212.85%8534.14%0.88-124.60
8 Stowaway1602515.63%5433.75%1.14-30.17
9 Getaway (GER)260238.85%6926.54%0.72-105.27
10 Presenting259238.88%7729.73%0.67-111.46
11 Beneficial2292310.04%6327.51%0.75-34.77
12 Midnight Legend2192310.50%5826.48%0.85-47.10
13 Old Vic1652213.33%5533.33%0.89-22.59
14 Mahler2002010.00%6633.00%0.79-113.02
15 Alflora (IRE)1752011.43%5430.86%1.23+32.92
16 Shirocco (GER)1271713.39%3628.35%0.99-50.02
17 Kapgarde (FR)1301612.31%4433.85%0.80-76.81
18 Soldier Of Fortune (IRE)1221613.11%3629.51%0.90-58.61
19 Martaline1091614.68%3733.95%0.89-40.21
20 Black Sam Bellamy (IRE)166159.04%4325.90%0.76-61.68

Chepstow NH, since 2010. Flemensfirth is the standout and by a distance — 67 winners from 435 at 15.40%, A/E 1.05 and +£96.49, the biggest sire profit on any page in this batch. King’s Theatre (A/E 1.07) and Oscar (1.01) are also at or above fair. Kayf Tara is the heaviest loss at £153.47 and A/E 0.84, with Milan at 0.77. Oppose Presenting (259 runners, A/E 0.67) and Yeats (171, A/E 0.68). Below the table, Brian Boru has returned A/E 1.42 from 90 runners. Heavy winter ground at Chepstow rewards a genuine stamina sire, and Flemensfirth is the clearest expression of it.
chepstow NH · Since 2010
How to read these tables. The figures are a first-party pull for this course and code covering runs since 1 January 2010, taken as a snapshot rather than updated live. A/E compares actual wins with the wins implied by starting price, so a figure above 1.00 means the group has won more often than its SP suggested. P/L is profit or loss to £1 win stakes at starting price.
Insider Knowledge

Betting Angles

🏇

Lean Toward the Front at Chepstow

71% of chase winners here either led or raced close to the pace, from just 47% of runners — one of the strongest, best-documented front-running biases anywhere.

📉

Watch for Errors at the Downhill Last

The steep 250-yard downhill run-in is a well-known cause of jumping mistakes at the final fence, since horses arrive at real speed.

🎯

Sam Thomas Is the Profitable Trainer Angle

A level-stakes profit of +£20.96 from 19 winners (24.1%, A/E 1.05), ahead of higher-volume names on pure return.

🏆

Harry Cobden Leads the Jockey Table

41 winners over the last five seasons — the most of any rider — though at A/E 0.89 and a level-stakes loss, that is volume leading the table rather than value.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Evan Williams Knows the Home Ground

The Welsh-based trainer’s deep local ties produced Secret Reprieve’s Welsh National win and Coole Cody’s Paddy Power and December Gold Cups.

🌊

Respect the Undulations, Not Just the Distance

Described as resembling “the ocean with large waves and swells,” Chepstow’s severe undulations shape form here as much as the obstacles do.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • Backing hold-up horses on reputation alone. The data here is unusually stark — leaders and prominent racers have won 71% of chases from just 47% of runners, with hold-up horses winning barely 5.7% of the time.
  • Judging Chepstow form without checking the going. Quick ground rides fast and true, but soft or heavy strings horses out like washing — a recognised stamina test and proving-ground ahead of Cheltenham and Aintree, so proven stayers deserve more credit once it rains.
  • Backing P F Nicholls or Harry Cobden here on winner count alone. Nicholls leads trainers on volume (128 wins from 595, A/E 0.83) and Cobden leads jockeys (72 from 316, A/E 0.94), but the market already prices both in — Sean Bowen (17.71% from 288, A/E 1.14, +£13.98) is the real value signal, with Daniel Skelton (A/E 0.77) and Rebecca Curtis (A/E 0.79) the yards to oppose, and Harry Skelton (A/E 0.71) the rider.
  • Treating the Welsh Grand National as run over a separate circuit. The 2019 extension moved the start further back on the same standard chase course, adding one extra fence — it isn’t a different track.
Common Questions

Chepstow Racecourse FAQs

Is there a genuine pace bias at Chepstow?
Yes, and it’s one of the starkest, most thoroughly quantified biases in jump racing: leaders and prominent racers have won 71% of handicap chases here from just 47% of runners, with a front-runner win rate of 25% against 5.7% for hold-up horses.
How is the Welsh Grand National course different from a normal Chepstow chase?
It isn’t a separate track. The 2019 extension from 3m5f110y to 3m6½f moved the start further back on the same circuit, adding one extra fence (23 total) rather than creating a new layout.
Why do horses fall at the last fence so often at Chepstow?
The run-in is a steep 250 yards downhill, and horses arriving at speed on that downhill trajectory are prone to jumping errors at the final fence.
Who owns Chepstow Racecourse?
Arena Racing Company (ARC), one of Britain’s largest racecourse groups.
Explore

Other Jumps Tracks

Aintree

Home of the Grand National — Mildmay and National courses.

Cheltenham

Old Course and New Course — the home of jump racing.

Kempton Park

Sharp, flat right-hander — home of the King George.

Bangor-on-Dee

Left-handed Welsh-border track and the only racecourse in Britain without a grandstand.

Want the thinking behind National Hunt bets?

FormDial posts every selection before the off with its full reasoning: the angle, the price, the logic. See how course analysis feeds into real selections.

Today’s Dial →

From the Formdial Shop
Going racing here?

The Trackside Companion is your day at the races, written to order — every race on your meeting’s card broken down, plus this track’s pace, angles and people distilled from the guide you’ve just read. Order at least a week before your raceday.

Plan your raceday →