Yesterday just about summed up how the races are unfolding for us of late. I couldn’t have made much of a better case for the selection, but Cheshire Dancer ran no sort of race and didn’t look in the same league. The winner, a 9/2 shot, I wouldn’t have backed at triple the price and the runner-up, a 66/1 chance, well… Let’s just say it was a result I can’t get my head around. I can’t put my finger on what, but for whatever reason, results have fallen off a cliff and this was just another of a series of perplexing runs. I’ve tried to find the flaw, or the thing I was missing… as I maintain that understanding a loser is as important as anything, but it’s a recurring theme of late.
Possibly a glutton for punishment, today I’m hunting down a bet in an Apprentice Handicap at Kempton. These are races I’d ordinarily avoid, but when an odds-on jolly is screaming at you to take them on, it means you should be getting enormous value in the rest of the race, which I’m hopeful of here.
In rear, short of room after 1f, ridden and no impression from over 1f out
I mentioned the form of David Killahena & Graeme McPherson’s string last month, who have always maintained a healthy strike rate but have somewhat upped their game into 2026. They show a level-stakes profit across all codes this year, and of the five that have run on Kempton’s All-Weather they have recorded a line reading 17112, with just one of those going off a favourite (11/4) and two being well into double digits. They send just the one here today, Sonnerie Power, who has recorded two wins and a further five in the frame from twelve runs at the track.
Previously with Mick Appleby, who inherited him from Roger Varian with an Official Rating of 87, he tumbled down the weights to a lowly OR of 60 following a winless streak of twenty-one races, despite hitting the frame six times. Switching to Killahena & McPherson, he had his first run for them at the turn of the new year over today’s C&D in his first tilt in basement grade Class 6 company, winning going away to score by two lengths at 18/1. Moderately consistent in defeat since, he goes today off of 64 with a useful 3lb claimer in a pitiful Apprentice Handicap, which really shouldn’t take much winning.
The odds-on jolly, Sarangpur, is by a sire whose progeny are weak on the All-Weather and winless at Kempton. The 2nd fav, Brodie’s Boy, has one win from twenty-five and just doesn’t look like wanting to win. Valentine Boy and Maywedance have minor squeaks on account of being less exposed, but don’t look much of a threat off their marks. Big Bear Hug I wouldn’t bet with your money. Distinction has a chance at the weights but a jockey with a long way to go, who somehow got him beat when he shouldn’t have already. With the selection having Joe Bradnam up, a rider who has looked mighty tidy despite extremely limited decent chances, I think we’re on the best horse in the race with one of the best riders, and getting a claim against some of the more established ones too. 11/2 @ Bet365 and BetVictor
Najmet Minzaal (15/8, Catterick 14:30), Caprelo (4/1, Kempton 19:13) and Spirit Lead Me (17/2, Kempton 20:55).
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhy are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Turf vs All-Weather · Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting
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