Yesterday’s opener just about summed my time up with it of late, with the best bet of the day, Star Material, planting himself in the stalls and refusing to race. Unfortunately, once a horse enters the stalls and the gates open, they are under Starter’s Orders, and thus we are at the mercy of the bookmaker for a goodwill gesture. I know a few got their dough back, but as per the rules of racing the bet was recorded as a loss. A really niggly day’s racing today, which, but for the two below, I never got overly close to playing any others.
The other two bet yesterday ran respectable enough races and are both worth keeping on side going forward. The Liffey ran a hugely positive race from the front and was beaten just ¾L in 2nd, which, considering how these big fields have been unfolding, deserves marking up. T’other being Downmexicoway, who was let down in patches with his jumping and has improvement on that performance, but was only beaten 3¾L 5th of 22 in the Galway Plate. That’s a cracker of a race to watch and this year’s was fair game too.
Towards rear, not clear run over 2f out, some headway from over 1f out, no impression final 110yds
Taken down early, took keen hold, in touch with leaders, hung left when headway over 1f out, hung left inside final furlong, ridden to lead inside final 110yds
First up for us is WHITE UMBRELLA, who we bet last week having made a really good case for in Daily Dial #126, but it all centred around a pace make-up which failed to materialise. As such, the mare ended up far more prominent than I think they’d have wanted and the race was nowhere near as strongly run as she needed. I said in that post, her run on 16th June last year (OR61) is well worth a watch, as it is the last strongly run race she got and she absolutely slapped in. She is so well handicapped based on that run, and just needs a race dynamic to come her way. With two confirmed front runners, I’m going to chance she gets that today at a friendly enough price.
The risk is, she has now fallen so far down the weights she is having to compete in 0-60 basement Class 6 Handicaps, which means she is going to find a genuine strongly run race increasingly tough to come by. As such, with the place boost widely available to four places for this twelve-runner race, I’m playing her each-way in case she gets a repeat of last time out. Cooramook, Velvet Skies, Dashing Donkey and Faster Bee should, between them, ensure a good gallop for her to aim at though.
The latter is one regular readers should be familiar with, as we bet SUGAR SUGAR five weeks back on Daily Dial #112 when a 50/1 shot at Brighton. The Jack Channon filly was beaten out of a place by just a ½ length that day, despite being given another very gentle ride and looking like dropping right away around two furlongs out. She finished superbly and was probably travelling the best of anyone through the line, and truth is we were very unlucky not to get some handsome place money.
She has run once since, in another Maiden at Wolverhampton – a race I let run as it looked decent enough for an All Weather handicap and, by Dream Ahead, they’re not progeny I like on the All Weather and she was drawn in the car park. However, she ran another cracker, this time with the handbrake well and truly off. She was bustled along from her wide draw to get a prominent position, travelled through the race like a travelly thing and turning in looked a very likely winner, only to bump into one way too good in Gary and Josh Moore’s runner, George Wickham. Whilst the Channon filly couldn’t live with the winner (who has since been given an opening OR of 80), she put over three lengths between herself and the field.
Making her handicap bow now off a mark of 65, I think she has been underestimated here. I’ve spoken plenty about how Jack Channon eases his newcomers in, and she was given painfully tentative rides on her first two starts. Her latest should put her well in the 70+ range. My only negative against her is the question mark around the track, as it isn’t the easiest to handle for these inexperienced horses. At the odds though, she ranks a fantastic bet.
The Dark Baron (11/2, Wolverhampton 17:10), Golden Caviar (16/1, Wolverhampton 17:47), Electric Dreams (11/1, Goodwood 17:55) and Angel Sense (5/1, Wolverhampton 18:22).
Today’s Stat Attack board is up as well – the trainers with the strongest records at today’s tracks, and the runners they send out. Nothing to do with the Dial and it never goes near the P/L, but worth a look.
Be lucky.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Non-Runner Rules · Pace Bias · Race Class Levels
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