Today’s best bet for me is in keeping the faith in another previous selection, with one who ran a big race for us earlier this month at 40/1. What stood out there was the fact they were confident enough to dip into far deeper water than they had to, as it was a race not lacking in depth. Today, what stands out is the opposite – it’s a significantly easier race, and somehow again the handicapper has been generous with another inexplicable ease in the weights.
Sugar Sugar. The barren run was finally broken, just. The Jack Channon filly dug in deep in the closing stages at Epsom last night to land us a nice 15/2 winner. She looked very likely to be an unlucky loser, as she and George Bass looked rather well penned in inside the final furlong, and the favourite was closing in. Fair play to George Bass, he took a gap which didn’t look like being there, and it worked out.
Taken down early, stumbled start, slowly away, towards rear throughout (jockey said gelding stumbled leaving stalls and was slowly away as a result)
We backed Heather Main’s Tanmawwy earlier this month, despite his two most recent runs consisting of a 22 lengths beaten 9th of 11 and then being Pulled Up in his next start. He had been off for over 550 days prior to his previous run, and had finished up being beaten just a length in 2nd from a mark of 78 from a career high of 103, so he was bet at a massive price from a reduced mark of 72 as a sheer swing: should he have retained any ability and desire for the game, he could likely get competitive. He was rated to run in Class 5 Handicaps, so the fact they threw him out in a fairly competitive 0-80 Class 4 Handicap stood out as a bit of a pitch of confidence. He duly ran a cracker, and for a moment looked like being a serious winning candidate.
Back out here taking a drop in distance to the six furlongs over which he has recorded five of his six career wins, but most notable is they now do give him the drop in grade, slotting nicely into a 0-75 Class 5 Handicap. To add to it, despite clearly running a cracker in a decent enough race, the handicapper has seen fit to drop him 2lbs in the weights for his 3½ lengths 4th of 12 in the aforementioned competitive Class 4, easing his mark to 70 for today. For context, that previous run has seen the winner, Under The Twilight, run a neck 2nd since in Wednesday’s 26-runner Charlton Handicap at Glorious Goodwood from a 5lb higher mark, and the 2nd, Amazonian Dream, win his next start off the same mark. The 5th, An Outlaw’s Grace, followed Amazonian Dream home in 4th two lengths behind, the same distance that separated them when Tanmawwy split them.
Havana Gift (11/4, Bath 18:08), Shaool (16/1, Galway 18:35), Beerwah (11/2, Bath 19:48) and Offiahs Boy (9/2, Bath 20:18).
Today’s Stat Attack board is up as well – the trainers with the strongest records at today’s tracks, and the runners they send out. Nothing to do with the Dial and it never goes near the P/L, but worth a look.
Be lucky.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhy no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
New to this? Read up on: Betting Odds · National Hunt Racing · Race Class Levels
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