One chanced yesterday and another vastly below-form run. The writing was on the wall a long way from home, with Oliver Stammers getting hard at work on him from over three furlongs out, and finishing eased down. The winner is a consistent sort, but has regularly found one or two better and has only been being nudged up by the handicapper, so to dominate like he did suggests the race wasn’t deep, so it’s another run I can’t explain. A perfect draw, an ideal break and position, yet never able to get into the race. The runner-up, a 14-race maiden… The bet should’ve been at the very least competitive, yet nowhere near it. I can’t put my finger on it, but the form at the minute is haywire. There is no doubt.
I’m going to chance one who we backed recently on stable debut for Luke Dace, who put a similar showing in as above on that occasion on his first start at Kempton. Switching to Lingfield today, where he has solid course form, I’ve had to dip back in. A few of you have noticed how many selections have run howlers for us only to then go and win next time out when we’ve not kept the faith. There have been quite a number of them.
Held up in rear, steady headway against far rail from over 1f out, no extra towards finish
We bet BACKER BILK on the 12th of this month, when Luke Dace sent him to Kempton, pitched in about as deep as you could expect for one rated 56, going in a 0-70 Class 5 Handicap. He was 100/1 that day and I fancied a tickle at him at the odds on account of how well Ulysses progeny do at staying trips on the All Weather. He was understandably outclassed that day, but is now dropped right down in grade into a 0-55 Class 6 Handicap, over the slightly shorter 1m2f. His course form is worth noting here though, having run here three times for Jim Best, with a comfortable 1st of five and a 1½ lengths beaten 3rd of eight, as well as a 1l 2nd of nine over the mile trip.
There are a few totally unexposed types in here who could literally be anything, and the way Andrew Balding’s yard have been going, I’d suggest Thunder Goddess is one to be wary of. However, at 18/1 I think Dace’s recruit is a fair bet with the proven course form to put a fair bid in here, and George Wood retains the ride, who I like around here and he is probably riding as well as ever right now.
Zilch.
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhy are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races
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