No gravy from two bets yesterday. Be In Love went okay in the opener at Naas without ever looking threatening, and likely needs further to be seen best. She hails from a decent family (a full sister to Blackbeard and Charles Darwin) and was pitched in very deep last time out in the Goffs Million at the Curragh, so I thought she was worth a tickle in a far quieter heat. T’other was a James Fanshawe filly, who does remarkably well in these races, but Room Fourteen was far too keen throughout and had emptied when needing to produce an effort. Only beaten 1¾ lengths, she’ll be winning races again imminently.
It’s a thin enough day of racing, with the Fillies’ Novice at Kempton, worth £15k, the highlight being a candid pointer to that. That said, these are the days which can make for the most interest in the betting, as less competitive racing makes for spotting chances – in theory. I’ve taken three, and feel good about a positive spin.
First up is one for Aidan Howard in the JP McManus silks. A Calyx gelding, A Good Yarn is bet to improve for a step up in trip whilst continuing on soft ground. These Calyx progeny just love the mud and prefer a test more around the 1m-1m2f marks than the 6f this boy has been tried twice over. Not disgraced in either heat, and now placed in a very weak-looking maiden, I fancy him to enjoy conditions best of any of these.
Next up is one for Ed Walker, whose debutants improve for a run, but this Space Blues colt ran a pleasing enough debut to suggest he can win here, and did so at 50/1. Worth noting that Space Blues progeny are 9/22 at Yarmouth too, suggesting Status Symbol will love the track.
Lastly is First Principle for William Haggas, who goes in one of the better races on the day in a 0-90 Class 3 Handicap at Kempton, but it looks an open and less competitive heat for the grade. He has two pieces of course form which put him bang in this, so I couldn’t turn my nose up at double-figure odds about his chances. A win in a Novices here in December 2024 and a close 2nd in a Class 2 Handicap off 1lb higher this time last year. This is a lower class and looks significantly less competitive than that contest.
Ephron (13/2, Musselburgh 13:47).
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: Pace Bias · Place Terms · Race Class Levels
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