Daily Dial #30 – Monday 26th January – One Rank Outsider at Wolverhampton

Nice to see Rosie Baloo oblige at Sedgefield yesterday at 10/3. A mare we’ve followed for a wee while now and she done it nicely. Interesting too to listen to William Easterby afterwards speak very well of her and her intentions over fences. She’s well above average and one we’ll likely have close tabs on for a fair while.

It’s quiet enough today and easy to let run, but I have chanced a single bet on the Irish handicapper moving over to the UK, as this one has some interesting form to a far higher mark, so at huge odds I couldn’t pass up.

Pickersgill @ 33/1 | 1pt EW

Wolverhampton 18:30

T: Iain Jardine
J: Andrew Mullen

Result: Placed – 4/11 +5.6pts

Taken down early, dwelt start, held up in midfield, headway over 1f out, went fourth inside final furlong, not pace to challenge (SP 33/1)

A rare enough Maiden winner for Shiela Lavery in Ireland and went on to run over seven furlongs in a race which five of them went on to contest in Listed company. She didn’t do much in that, but beaten eight lengths she wasn’t entirely disgraced.

She now moves over to Iain Jardine’s and goes off of a mark of just 65, which if she can run anywhere near her best in Ireland then she should far outrun her odds. Her form is patchy, so this could wind up anything, but at wild odds she is worth a swing.

Bet365, SkyBet and PaddyPower are all 33/1 paying 4 Places on current number of runners.

Best of luck with your punting today,

Common questions

What's a sensible bankroll?

Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.

For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.

What does "each-way" mean?

An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.

The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.

How do I follow this bet?

Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.

If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.

What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?

Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.

Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.

New to this? Read up on: Place Terms · Each-Way Betting · Handicap Races