One selection yesterday returned a tidy profit, where the 33/1 shot Seven Fires ran a cracker at Chelmsford to justify the improvement expected second time out for Jack Channon.
She overraced for the entirety of the first furlong, and continued to take a pull at various stages throughout the second, yet still came through to take up the running into the straight, going so well she had me getting giddy. Unfortunately her effort flattened out somewhat due to her early exersions and she was just about reeled in into 3rd, beaten just 1¾ length.
For how much she took a pull, it was a remarkable run. The odds-on-jolly obliged, but hardly won like a 2/9 shot and we got a fair better return than that for our placed effort! She will be a very obvious chance next time out, but that run wouldn’t have gone unnoticed so her price will no doubt reflect that. We’ll keep tabs nonetheless.
Onto today…
Moderate fair to get into ahead of the weekend, where we’ll hopefully have the Dublin Racing Festival to enjoy. Nothing bopping me on the nose over the jumps at Catterick or Ffos Las, the latter looking likely to be a right mudpit, but a few at Southwell on the artificial which I had a good go over – One of which I’ve been waiting for in a race just like this…
Thequietman @ 16/1 | 1pt EW
Southwell 13:32
Southwell 13:32T: David O’Meara
J: David Nolan
Result: unplaced – 9/11 -2pt
Always behind (SP 22/1)
Grabajabba @ 8/1 | 2pt Win
Southwell 14:32
Southwell 14:32T: Michael Appleby
J: Alistair Rawlinson
Result: unplaced – 4/12 -2pt
Raced wide, in touch with leaders early, dropped to midfield after 2f, headway on near side of group over 1f out, not pace to challenge (SP 8/1)
First up goes Thequietman, a Farhh gelding making his third start for David O’Meara since joining the yard from over the Irish Sea from Joseph O’Brien, and this being his first start in a Handicap, too.
Both starts for David O’Meara have come over the seven furlongs so far, both in Novice company, the best of which was the former of those which came here at Southwell when beaten 3¼ lengths third of eight, staying on from the rear of the field and looking like wanting further.
The fact Joseph O’Brien started him out first twice over the mile trip, before upping him to 1m2f, suggests he was always likely to find that seven furlongs on the sharp side, so back up to a mile today should bring out improvement, and his mark of 72, judged on his form in Ireland, should be well within his grasp.
An hour later goes Grabajabba, the standout bet of the day who takes a drop in grade and goes over his optimal seven furlong trip. I was very close to punting him last time out at Wolverhampton and thought I was going to regret not doing so when he went for a gap up the rail to make his challenge, but he was brutally cut off for a run and had his chance ended.
He had suffered a similar fate when previously seen over 7f, where he was squeezed out in-running when mounting his challenge and lost all chance. Clearly he needs a dose of luck, but his well due some and quite how the handicapper has seen fit to drop him 2lbs for that last run is beyond me. I can only assume they’ve looked at the result and not watched the race.
That drop in the weights does plop him nicely into this 0-75 Class 5 though, for this his first run both in the grade and first back over the C&D which saw him notch his first success in December 2024. On all evidence he is a seriously well handicapped horse for a yard in great form who are masters of placing them in these races.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races · Ante-Post Betting
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