Daily Dial #37 – Sat 7 Feb – Lingfield and Newbury

Early start today so the dial is going to be a brief out and punch. Two I’ve been waiting after, one longer than the other. It has been a quiet few days on the post front, as I’ve just not been sweet enough about anything at remotely close to an interesting price.

A few have gone into the notebook over the week, so I’ll have to do a lengthy post over the weekend with a view to getting those down to take forward.

Amazonian Dream @ 7/1

2pt Win | Lingfield 15:30

T: Rod Millman
J: Lewis Edmunds

Result: Placed – 2/8 -2pt | Taken down early, in touch with leaders, raced slightly wide and lost position over 2f out, rallied inside final furlong, kept on well final 110yds, went second towards finish (SP 5/1)

Holloway Queen @ 8/1

2pt Win | Newbury 15:55

T: Nicky Henderson
J: James Bowen

Result: Won – 1/10 +16pts | Raced in second, lost position briefly halfway, going best and led narrowly 4 out, went clear approaching last, shaken up and went further clear run-in, easily (SP 11/2)

First up today goes Amazonian Dream, who we backed last time out and had every right to feel aggreived. He ran 3rd of ten in a 0-80 at Southwell and looked like he was falling out the back of the telly, only to refind his feet and come hosing through rivals to finish in the frame, beaten two lengths.

I couldn’t fathom whether it was a woeful ride or if the horse just found a flat spot at a bad time, but he certainly showed he has a mighty engine at this level and given a sound round, I’d really fancy him.

Then goes Holloway Queen for Nicky Henderson at Newbury. She is a mare we followed closely over Christmas and I remain convinced she is extremely well handicapped off of this mark, now 124.

She went well enough here at Newbury last time out, on better ground than she’d prefer, and there was improvement to be had in her jumping which suggests she has any amount of improving to do over fences.

The ground today should be far more to her likely which should see her to far better effect alone, but if she can improve her jumping with that then she could prove a tough nut to reel back in.

She is the only mare in the race, and she’s up against a few decent ones here, but I think in time she’ll prove well the best of these so hopeful she can put a massive run in.

Best of luck with your punting today,

Common questions

What does "each-way" mean?

An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.

The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.

How do I follow this bet?

Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.

If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.

What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?

Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.

Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.

Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?

Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.

If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.

Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.

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