With Thursday skipped due to nothing appealing on the betting front, I was hopeful today would offer some fruitful looking opportunities, but I’ve ultimately been left with just the one play. However, it’s a very solid one and one I was surprised to see at such a price.
The Southwell card is dominated by the appearance of Constitution Hill of course, but I would not be at all surprised to see many fingers burnt on him. Of course he is a classy animal on the National Hunt scene, albeit he has his quirks, but this is a very different proposition.
Nicky Henderson is no stranger to the Flat or the All Weather, he proves profitable following over the Flat to the level stakes, but there is nothing in Constitution Hill’s pedigree to suggest he will excel here, and he goes against a few who set a decent enough standard on proven Flat form.
I was keen to have a good go at the race, what with Constitution Hill taking a big chunk of the betting, but the book just didn’t make it a betting race for me. I was leaning towards Dan Skelton’s Gambino for a price (10/1), but there wasn’t a great deal of juice in the price there, or not enough to tempt me in anyway.
Betsen @ 9/1
Betsen @ 9/12pt Win | Southwell 18:30
T: Tony Carroll | J: Billy Loughnane
Result: Placed – 3/12 -2pts | In touch with leaders, steady headway and prominent over 3f out, pressed leader over 2f out, kept on (SP 13/2)
Betsen has been one who has haunted me over the last few months, on account of putting him in my tracker before he had even had his first run for Tony Carroll, purely on account of the entries they were making for him.
He was sprinkled with a few entries in Class 2 Handicaps when he joined them from over in Ireland, which stood out as a noteable move as they could’ve pitched him into far calmer water for his stable debut.
He ended up taking up one of those entries, going for a Class 2 Handicap here at Southwell in November, and duly obliged at odds of 40/1. I can assure you I was sicker than a sick thing when I saw that result come in.
He has been a beaten favourite last twice, running a fair 4th on both occasions and finishing with credit on both fronts, in Class 3 and Class 4 Handicaps off a 2lb higher mark, though neither track appeared to overly suit him.
He fetches back to Southwell now, down 1lb so just 1lb above his last winning mark, and comes here for a Class 4 Handicap, so he is in far calmer company than he previously met here. The favourite here, Vantheman, won a very mediocre affair at Newcastle, only just seeing a thoroughly exposed sort in Arnhem, and has looked steps up in trip here from his usual 5f.
He gets a hugely positive Jockey booking in Billy Loughnane, who has operated on the All-Weather with a near 20% strike rate over the last year and a bit, from nearly 800 rides – An incredible level of consistency.
Betsen for me looks an outstanding bet at the prices and I’m very surprised isn’t half the price on account of going back to the scene of his last win, in far better company.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
New to this? Read up on: Pace Bias · Race Class Levels · Turf vs All-Weather
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