A very quiet Sunday card was skipped and Monday isn’t much better, but there appears to be an outstanding Each-Way bet at Wolverhampton. He ticks boxes on many fronts – course-and-distance form, jockey booking, below last winning mark and an enormous swing in the weights with a fancied rival.
Saturday Review
With four of the five bets on the day at 20/1+, I was hopeful it would be a huge one, and on two fronts it very nearly paid off in spades. There were some very disappointing runs in there too. Ultimately it was a profitable day, but only minor money, with two places the best we got from the five.
Charlus (Kempton) and Whistle Stop Tour (Newcastle) were two minimum bets (½pt Each-Way for 1pt total) and both were Pulled Up, which is about as bad as it gets. Charlus was a complete unknown on his first start for Dan Skelton, but Whistle Stop Tour I had hoped would at least give us a sound spin.
The other disappointment was the only single-figure selection and the only Win bet of the day – Chance Another One. The writing was on the wall early. He never travelled like himself and carried his head awkwardly from halfway, getting it wrong at more than one flight. That was not a true run by any means. Easily forgiven next time.
The two profitable bets were Sock It To Me (25/1, Fairyhouse), who ran a huge race in second and relished the step back up in trip, and the bet of the day, Kocktail Bleu (33/1, Kempton), who looks like he has a big prize in him.
Both were a little rusty at their fences and a cleaner round from either could have seen them go one better – Sock It To Me in particular. Kocktail Bleu’s race was run at a relentless gallop too, so for him to stick on from a prominent position tells you plenty about his toughness. We’ll keep firm tabs on both.
Neptune Legend @ 11/1
Neptune Legend @ 11/11pt Each-Way | W’hampton 16:25
T: James Owen | J: Mason Paetel
Result: unplaced – 6/10 -2pts | Slowly away, in rear, headway from 2f out, kept on inside final furlong (SP 28/1)
The sole selection today is Neptune Legend in the Apprentice Riders’ race at Wolverhampton. I think both the handicapper and the market have overreacted to three runs that can be easily explained.
He has run eight times on the All-Weather this term. He began over 7f off 58, was eased 1lb to 57 after a poor reappearance, then ran a solid 4th of 12 beaten 2¼l, again over 7f.
Dropped to 6f off 57, he won well in a race that wasn’t run to suit. He was raised 2lb to 59 and followed that with a 5th of 9 beaten 2l and a 5th of 11 beaten 1¾l. Two perfectly sound efforts. His mark remained unchanged.
He was then dropped to the minimum 5f – a trip he has never looked suited by – and was beaten 8l, 9l and 5l, finishing last and twice second-last. For those three runs over an inadequate trip, his mark has been eased from 59 to 55. So three poor efforts over the wrong trip have knocked 4lb off his mark.
Now he steps back up to 6f. He won over today’s course and distance in November off 57 at 9/2. He runs today off 55 at 11/1.
Additionally, he beat Woodhay Whisper that day when receiving 4lb. Today he receives 11lb – a 7lb swing in his favour – yet Woodhay Whisper is half the price.
I respect Twilight Madness. He is well handicapped and if they get an easy lead and Taryn Langley judges it right, he could be hard to peg back. However, she has misjudged pace often enough for me to be comfortable taking that risk.
The quicker they go, the better for Neptune Legend, as he would benefit from a nice tow into the race for a strong finish. The only way I see him missing the frame is if they crawl early and turn it tactical.
Best of luck with your punting today,
