Daily Dial #103 – Three Bets Across Leicester, Roscommon and Windsor

Yesterday’s only bet, Mobadir at Goodwood, didn’t pay off — or even get competitive — but I think he can be considered somewhat unfortunate to have two last-of-sixes on his record. He was fairly well scuppered when the David Evans runner My A’Ali Baba back-pedalled through the field, and as a result Mobadir was only ridden with hands and heels from there on. He’s one quiet race away from being handed a lowly mark, so worth keeping tabs on for that purpose at the very least.

A decent enough Monday to pick through, with plenty that appealed. I’ve taken three across the cards in a real variety of races — one in a competitive Class 4 handicap for a filly who should relish the undulating track at Leicester, one over hurdles dropping back into a far easier task, and a veteran course specialist tackling a low-key Classified Stakes for the first time in his career.

First up is NOWSHESDANCING at Leicester for Harry Eustace, recruited out of Mark Fahey’s yard after a winning debut at Dundalk in January — only Fahey’s third debut winner since 2013. On stable debut she ran third of seven while giving lumps of weight away, beaten 4½ lengths behind the William Haggas pair Sea The Storm (since rated 93) and Pierian (since won two novices). Considering that debut win has thrown up numerous runners since rated 70+, her opening mark of 76 looks very lenient. She’s by Teofilo, whose progeny excel on undulating tracks, so Leicester will suit her as well as anywhere — and likely far better than the fair, galloping track at Wetherby where she ran last time. Teofilo’s runners at Leicester read 19/84, a 22.6% strike rate. 1pt Each-Way at 14/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral).

Next up is STEDE BONNET, one I’d flagged as an “Other to note” over the winter and who delivered on a few occasions. He was going great guns until his last two outings — the first a small-field Listed Novice at Punchestown, where he was wrong at the weights with two useful sorts but was far from disgraced, and then the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival, where he got a torrid run of things. Badly hampered three out, he lost all momentum and took an age to get going again, yet showed a really good attitude to claw his way back onto the tail of the leading pack — only to be hampered again at the last. He now drops into far lesser company, off his Irish mark of 127, and should be bang there. 2pt Win at 11/2 (Bet365).

Last up is the veteran LAWN RANGER, who at eleven years of age went mighty close to causing a real shock on his reappearance, running huge from the front at Kempton last month — a tough ask round that outer circuit — only to be touched off by half a length in a competitive handicap for the grade. He was just 1/24 on the all-weather before that run; back on turf he’s 7/44, and he looks almost certain to get the soft ground he relishes at Windsor, where five of his seven turf wins have come. Windsor’s flat track is a haven for front-runners, so that record is no surprise — and as the only out-and-out front-runner in the field, he has a real chance of repeating it in what is comfortably the easiest race of his career, this first tilt at a lowly Classified Stakes. 2pt Win at 13/2 (Bet365, William Hill).

Others To Note — a handful I looked at twice but left alone at the prices: Jellystone Park (2/1, Leicester 15:00), Shark Two One (11/2, Leicester 16:00), Bymiddaytomorrow (7/2, Windsor 17:39), Bayside Way (25/1, Pontefract 19:00), Phantom Recon (20/1, Windsor 19:09), Shimmering Sands (10/3, Pontefract 20:30).

Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!