Daily Dial #110 – Two Bets from Day Two of Royal Ascot

Two big prices chanced today, but I’m hell bent both have almighty claims for running a place at best, and if the races fall right for them then both can win. A bad turn of results can lead to easing up until things turn, but these would be two of the most obvious outside prices to suddenly turn your back on. If neither of these go close, I’ll be shocked. I say this whilst being conscious of the fact both go in Handicaps, which is where my strike rate has been really letting results down.

Since recording selections again back in December, there is a very weak strike of just 2/41 for 4.9%. Comparing to the AW strike of 7/79 (8.9%), whilst still not pulling up trees, it’s an evident lag which needs attention. There have been numerous who’ve placed and a good few hard luck stories, and it is still early days, so hopefully a bit of correction from the law of averages is due. It’s something I’m very aware of, though. That doesn’t change the fact I couldn’t be much sweeter on two outrageous prices here.

Yesterday’s only bet, 125/1 chance Jaan Ki Tukri, ran a fair enough race when beaten 3¾ lengths 9/21 in the Coventry. He had to make the most of the running, which was a big ask in that field, but he stuck to it nicely only to be a touch outclassed in the finish. The big eyecatcher of the day for me was in the same race, where Oisin Murphy’s mount MRAIR ran a mighty big race. They were caught behind a wall of horses early doors and had to be ridden extremely cold, but when they made their move he made rapid headway before getting his challenge halted abruptly in the very final stages, finishing a false 8th beaten 2 lengths. He was value for far better and looks a certainty to land a big prize. One I’ll be following with the utmost interest.

First up is URBAN LION for Jack Channon in the Royal Hunt Cup, a race he was desperately unlucky in last year when going great guns down the far rail, only to be squeezed out of it and finishing 1¾ lengths 5/30 off a mark of 97. He then put an equally fair run in back here in the Shergar Cup on the round course, when ½ length 3/10 behind Ebt’s Guard and Cerulean Bay, but he re-opposes both here on more favourable terms at the weights and shouldn’t have to make all the running this time around.

He can absolutely remain competitive off the 5lbs higher he carries here compared to last year’s tilt, and his draw on the stands side should aid his chance comparatively also. He made a winning reappearance this term, winning at Doncaster on ground which would’ve been on the easier side than he’d have preferred, and beat some seriously good yardsticks in the process. He followed that up with a poor run at Newbury, but you can forgive him a bounce after his prior exertions. Jack Channon maintains he can win handicaps off his mark, he clearly goes very well here, a favourable draw, ideal ground and a massive hard luck story last year… I can’t get my head around the price. 1pt Each-Way @ 40/1 (Paddy Power, paying 1/5 on 7 Places).

T’other is CHESHIRE DANCER for Hugo Palmer in the Fillies’ and Mares’ Handicap, where I’m hoping she’ll prove to be the Group filly in a handicap, already having the Group 3 Valiant Stakes Fillies’ and Mares’ to her name from last July, run over the mile here on the round course. She won that giving the age allowance to some 100+ rated 3-year-olds, with the 4th, 5th and 6th that day all going on to win or place in Group company since.

She then went over to the States for the $2,000,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf, where she completely missed the kick coming out of the stalls, ended up way off the pace but was a huge eyecatcher, picking rivals off at will down the home stretch and looking a certainty for a place, only to have her path shut in her face in the very closing stages. Tried over further since, which hasn’t worked out, but dropping back to a mile now and slipping into a handicap for the first time since running a 1¼ lengths 3/23 in last year’s Kensington Palace, she looks wildly overlooked. 1pt Each-Way @ 28/1 (Bet365, paying 1/5 on 6 Places).

Others to note: Iris Dancer (7/2, Hamilton 16:02) and Controlla (4/1, Ascot 18:10). I really wanted to bet the latter — she made her debut in a Group 3 against five fillies who all had the benefit of experience yet still ran a big race to be beaten 2nd by a neck by Aidan O’Brien’s Wootton Bassett filly Victorious. My sticking point is the inescapably poor record of Night Of Thunder progeny at Ascot — just 6%, the lowest strike of any track with 10+ runners for the sire. Bow Echo obviously got over that fact yesterday in the St James’s Palace Stakes, but I think he is an exception rather than a rule. Ombudsman has a chance to notch another positive to it today in the Prince Of Wales, but with too much unknown against Controlla, I’ll leave her today and hope to catch her another day.

Coming back to the opening reflections on the handicap strike rate, I’ve opened up the Explorer, which is where results statistics and metrics have been stored on a wide-reaching analytical front — easy to really deep dive into where selections are paying, and more so where they are not. Have a look at www.formdial.com/explore/ and have a wee play. It’s something I’m considering releasing for others to use. It takes some commitment to keep updated but the benefits of seeing how and where bets perform are invaluable, and it only gets stronger as more and more bets are populated.

Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!