A later post, following a late night. Thankfully today’s selections were locked and loaded well in advance of the overnight antics in the Azteca. Today’s cards look okay, with two clear picks. Still not finding things falling, but it will spin round and it usually comes in a flurry. Fingers crossed we’re close to that.
Yesterday’s only bet, Ouro Preto for Iain Jardine, didn’t get the race I’d hoped for him. There was no pace up front, which led to him running keen and emptying the tank. I maintain we’ll see a different proposition from him given a more suitably run race, so don’t be writing him off despite finishing 9th of ten beaten 9¾ lengths. It was a day of races finishing on the slow side and largely dominated by front runners — a fair line through that.
Midfield, pushed along 3f out, weakened over 1f out
Midfield, hung right then kept on inside final furlong
First selection of the day is PRECIOUS SPARTAN at Ripon, where the charge has recorded a 100% strike rate from three runs at the track. Patrick Neville has quietly gone about recording an enviable strike rate over recent years, notching nine wins from just thirty-eight runners on the Flat and All-Weather since the turn of 2024 at an A/E of 1.88 — seriously overlooked. He is slightly up in grade from his three previous course wins, but he has run twice at this level, running 4th beaten 1¾ lengths off 3lb higher at Pontefract, and 3rd beaten ¾ length at Ayr off of today’s mark. I rate the jockey booking too, with Rowan Scott having ridden seven winners from his last thirty-three rides.
Lastly is HAVANA SKY who I’ve mentioned as possibly one of the best handicapped horses in training this year, but things just haven’t come off for him. Seven wins and six places from just twenty-nine runs on the All-Weather, with all bar one of those coming off marks equal to or higher than the OR of 65 he runs off today. Only in December 2024 did he complete a five-timer over today’s C&D under a double penalty and from the widest draw, and did so with some left in the tank, too. He is now below the mark of 66 he did that from for the first time since, and without the penalty. A hugely positive booking in the saddle of Marco Ghiani, too.
Winemaker (5/2, 18:30 Wolverhampton).
Good luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialHow do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races
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