Afternoon all – Late post update, as promised, albeit later than intended. A cracking day of racing, with a feast to sift through this evening in hope of catching some useful pointers going forward. The racing this week has been utterly uninspiring for the large part, so it’s somewhat frustrating to then have a plethora at hand over the Friday and Saturday. Surely some of this is better spread about a bit?
I’ve attached below the pace map I had put together of Echalar’s race from Thursday, just to highlight how completely unpredictable things have been of late. The way I try to predict the pace of a race is by taking an average of their last five races over a code, from which here there appeared to be only one likely leader in Rating, with Echalar and Dappled Light the likely prominent runners in behind. Instead, it was Kodi Fire, who had the fourth lowest pace rating of the six, who sprung out and made the running, and made every yard of it, with Echalar held up for a run. With Chepstow being a tough track to make all the running at, I was fairly well perplexed by the tactics all round.
Formdial Pace Map
Chepstow · 15:50
One on the front end
Rating is the only confirmed front-runner in the race and should get the lead cheaply. A soft, uncontested lead is a head start — be wary of anything that needs a strong pace to run at.
1 front-runner · 2 prominent · 2 mid-division · 1 held up
| No. | Horse | Runs | Total | Avg | Running style |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rating | 5 | 17 | 3.40 | Front-runner |
| 4 | Echalar | 5 | 14 | 2.80 | Prominent |
| 2 | Dappled Light | 5 | 13 | 2.60 | Prominent |
| 1 | Kodi Fire | 5 | 11 | 2.20 | Mid-division |
| 6 | Stenmark | 5 | 9 | 1.80 | Mid-division |
| 5 | Penelope Valentine | 5 | 7 | 1.40 | Hold-up |
Onto today, and from a fair chunk of runners roughed through, I’m left with two who I think are solid punts…
Towards rear, headway under 2f out, went third and kept on towards finish
First up is HOT TO FOXTROT, who has featured a mention on a handful of occasions the now, and featured as a selection back at the beginning of June when 3rd of 20 btn 3½L over 6.5f, where he just faded late on, in a decent enough 0-70. He went next up in trip slightly over 7f, where I let him run on account of fading late over shorter, but today he drops right back in trip to the bare 5f. As a prominent runner, such profiles are hugely advantaged at Down Royal, and his only run over C&D was in a Maiden last September where he ran a 3½ lengths 3rd of 10, never nearer, suggesting he handles this track with aplomb. Ronan Whelan booked, who rides almost all of the yard’s runners who are on a going day.
The latter chance is ANGEL SHARED, who has a C&D record reading 51113, has scored off of 3lbs higher than she runs from here. Her last run here, the 6th, saw her beaten just 3 lengths, did see her behind both Powdering and Shallow, who both re-oppose, but she overraced that day which would’ve put paid to her chance. With Elara May likely to make the running, she should get a nice pace to settle into providing she doesn’t get into a fight for the lead. Her Bath run in Listed company back in April suggests she was well enough treated off of the 84 she was competing off, so from a mark of 81 today, and back against the fillies, I think she has a cracking chance in a race which should suit.
Sequel Star (11/8, Wolverhampton 14:13), Shadow Paddy (5/4, Killarney 15:42), War Hawk (7/1, Newmarket 18:58) and Superior Choice (1/1, Hamilton 19:50).
Good luck all.
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Why no advised bet some days?
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A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
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Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
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For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
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