Late to the party today with a lot to catch up on last night from yesterdays cards and a good set of cards today, albeit very difficult from a betting view. One taken today, who fails to tick a few boxes, namely a trainer on the cold list (having a few hitting crossbar) and a handicap debutant for a yard who don’t notoriously fire on handicap bow. Sounds uninspiring, but this is one I flagged immediately when given what looks a seriously lenient mark, so I can’t let run.
Frustrations continued yesterday, especially so with Angel Shared, who I had hopes pinned on not getting carried away out in front, and that’s exactly how it transpired. They went off far too quick and set it up for a closer. Hot To Foxtrot ran a fine race, though adversly he was given a mountain to climb and I had hoped to see him ridden far closer to the pace. He will win races.
Disputed lead, raced in second after 1f, lost second under 2f out, soon bit short of room then weakened
The only bet today, on a seriously muddling day of it, is Jessica Harrington’s handicap debutant NOBLE HONOUR following the Irish Oaks. I’ve been a big fan of Jessica Harrington’s over the years, but betting her handicap debutants certainly isn’t a trend of theirs I’ve followed closely, as they don’t tend to fire many in, but this filly looks to have been given a massive chance off of a lenient opening mark. Her three runs to date have produced a 2nd of 9, 3rd of 13 and a 2nd of 13, all in races where those around her have ran bang up to their level, suggesting it is strong enough form, but it’s the latest run which is the best evidence to date.
Six lengths behind her, she had stablemate Pierre Grosse running in 4th, rated 80 and just behind 3rd Tanzanite Diamond, who is yet to be given a mark. They have both ran since, with Pierre Grosse running ¾ Length 2nd of 9 in a valuable Down Royal Handicap, and Tanzanite Diamond running 4th of 17 in a decent Fairyhouse maiden, finishing just 3 lengths behind another of Jessica Harrington’s, in 85-rated Now Maybe. Both look rock solid yardsticks, who Noble Honour was well clear of, so I was perplexed as to Noble Honour’s opening OR of just 78. She should take a good bit of beating if repeating the level.
Tribal Queen (7/1, Newmarket 15:05), Spioradalta (8/1, Ripon 15:15), Generous Rascal (18/1, Newmarket 16:17) and First Time (11/1, Doncaster 18:45).
Good luck all.
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Get your Ledger£5/month launch price · 14-day free trialWhy are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Handicap Races · Ante-Post Betting · Non-Runner Rules
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