An hour spent at a standstill on the M3 this morning, so horribly behind. Talking of horrible, the drift and an explanatory run on yesterday’s only chance, who had the writing upon the wall before they’d even set off. Very likely being saved for a Bath handicap and is worth taking another chance with when going back there. Until then he is unbackable on that evidence last night, and even back at Bath it will take a calculated leap of faith. Today is a mixed bag, and three very different types taken for a bet each. One a debutant from a yard whose newcomers I rarely bet, but a very good reason to take a chance on this one.
Prominent, lost position and pushed along halfway, kept on inside final furlong
Slowly into stride, took keen hold, some headway over 2f out, weakened over 1f out
Towards rear, good headway 2f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well, cosily
A Sir Mark Prescott debutant is not one I look at for a bet often, but seeing A LA MONTAGNE listed in the Novice at Catterick, her dam caught my eye – Alpinista, 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner for the yard, a winner in ten of her fifteen races, and a winner on debut. By Dubawi, she will undoubtedly get further in time, but she should be a very nice type, and this will certainly be one they would like to see follow a similar pattern to her dam.
Next up, OUR DAGGER is following the ex-Irish handicapper angle, but for a bang in-form stable and a very eyecatching jockey booking in Pat Dobbs, who can do little wrong for this last year or so. It’s a rare Ffos Las ride for him, his only one on the day and a first for the yard, on a horse who was a successful raider to the UK (and in particular Ffos Las) when stabled in Ireland. Not the weakest race for the grade, but weighted to win on Irish form, and the booking suggests they fancy it today.
Lastly is the Roscommon Bumper, which I initially looked at on account of Inishtearaght, a Poet’s Word gelding who disappointed on debut for Emmet Mullins. He has since been made a non-runner, but it was notable that John Gleeson, who rides nearly all of Emmet Mullins’ Bumper runners, was booked up on Henry de Bromhead’s LOLA O C, for whom Gleeson has an equally frequent but significantly more impressive record. To put that into context, de Bromhead has had 90 runners in Bumpers since just before the turn of 2024, and of them there have been sixteen winners – Gleeson has ridden 52 of the 90, and 15 of the 16 winners. By Walk In The Park, a stallion with a great record in Bumpers, and out of Baby Twig, a mare whose only career start was a 16-length romp in a Punchestown Bumper for Gordon Elliott. Everything points to a bold debut.
Today’s Stat Attack board is up as well – the trainers with the strongest records at today’s tracks, and the runners they send out. Nothing to do with the Dial and it never goes near the P/L, but worth a look.
Be lucky.
Every Daily Dial bet ends up in the public log, win or lose. The Formdial Ledger gives you the same engine for your own betting — log bets in seconds, settle them in a click, and see your real strike rate and ROI.
Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Handicap Races · Ante-Post Betting
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