Daily Dial #136 – Three Strong Fancies at Pontefract and Kempton

One from the three yesterday, with Lola O C winning impressively at Roscommon. As mentioned in yesterday’s post, she is the first foal out of Baby Twig, a runaway winner of a Bumper on her only start, and the way Lola O C was punted in come the evening suggests someone was expecting a similar outcome. 3/1 was still available come 20:00 last night, but she was sent off the 13/8 favourite and won well. One to keep tabs on, for sure. I was grateful she got the job done, as the two each-way bets were dross!

Today’s Stat Attack board is up as well – it’s an informational piece with a separate P/L tracked for transparency only, but they are interesting pointers worth keeping tabs on. Five winners from eleven qualifiers yesterday, albeit all short-priced winners. You’ll catch some interesting trainer/course angles, at the very least.

First up is MISSMIMI, one of just two course winners in the field. Pontefract produces many a course specialist, due to the test on both stamina and balance. A heavily undulating track, it finds many out on that alone, but coupled with the long uphill finish putting a heavy test on stamina, it is one where those who go well on it tend to repeatedly do so. Here, any race distance needs a horse who will stay that bit further. This mare has won here over both the 5f and 6f trip, so her stamina is in no way questioned for today’s minimum sprint, but what I like about her most is how she bucks the prominent trend. The track has a heavy bias to prominent runners, but she has twice won from the rear of the field. With today looking set up nicely with a few confirmed front-runners, she should get a lovely pace to aim at and finish strongly.

Next up is SOMETHING, who I put up as a fairly strong fancy at Kempton in February when trained by Stuart Williams. He has since moved to Liam Bailey, and I watched frustratedly as he won on stable debut at Ripon in May, making every yard of the running. He has since run figures of 232, with the first of those being a ¾ length 2nd to Say What You See here at Pontefract, who went on to follow that win up by winning an 18-runner handicap at York under a penalty four days later. In this small field, he should be able to dominate off the front and for me, the only thing which can get him beat here is Billy Garritty’s fractions.

Last is PISCEAN STAR, who goes in an admittedly tricky enough looking Class 4 handicap at Kempton. By Starman, whose progeny are strong on the all-weather and in particular love a spin around Kempton, operating at a 20% strike rate, only bettered on the artificial at Newcastle (30%). He was a very rare debut winner for Ed Dunlop last year (over this C&D) – the only other that year was the now 103-rated Pathein – and he finished last year running a 2 length 2nd to Charlie Fellowes’ now 90-rated Rosa Inglesa, who ran 3rd in this year’s Sandringham Stakes. Of the eight behind Piscean Star that day who have run since, six of them have won. Returning on a mark of 77 here, I think he can far exceed that this term and if ready to go on return from a break, he could take some reeling in.

Glen Nevis (12/1, Brighton 15:30) and The Organiser (6/1, Brighton 16:30).

Best of luck all getting involved today.