First time I’ve dug into the cards since we bet Maelstrom at Doncaster on Sunday, in a race which just didn’t pan out for him in the hat-trick bid. His Ascot win hadn’t been particularly well run to suit, so I’d been hopeful either way, but he was too far up on a steady pace and the front-runners just dominated the race. I’d fancy giving him another go in a race which looks more likely to run to suit.
Chancing two today, one in a Yarmouth Maiden who really impressed first time out at Kempton and one at Clonmel who has just about sneaked in at an each-way price and looks really well handicapped in a weak enough race. I was very close to playing one at Kelso in the Bumper too, as Brian Hughes goes for one ride for the Patrick Neville debutant Going On, which looks like a tip in itself, and it looks a weak race. Neville is just 2/66 in Bumpers though (0/37 with debutants), so as a 2/1 shot he was worth letting run.
I’ve been working away on the ratings, which I’ll have to introduce here as there are absolutely some legs in it with some seriously promising results. Still learning how best to use them, so they are strictly a watching brief at present, but I’m very happy with how they are coming together, especially so on the Flat. They are blind rated to the market, which is a fundamental for anything like this, and that’s where it could be a really useful tool. They won’t ever be a tool to bet blind, but for scoring races and narrowing down when and where to look, it could prove a game-changer.
First up is LIBERTY’S HALL for James Owen and Kieran Shoemark. A Nathaniel colt, out of a well-bred mare, he will only improve as he goes over further and is worth keeping tabs on regardless of how he fares today, but the way in which he ran on debut at Kempton last month was enough to make him of interest here. He was blown away by the impressive and clearly very useful Sonic Angel, who looks an out-and-out sprinter. James Owen’s debutant ran a cracking race as runner-up though, putting a good bit between himself and the strung-out field, and the form of the race looks to have some good depth to it. Worth noting too that Owen and Shoemark are 4/5 in non-handicaps and 10/28 (36%) overall when pairing up.
The latter bet is the ultra-consistent handicapper EXPOUND at Clonmel, who has hit the frame in exactly 50% of his 46 career starts (60% on the Flat). He goes here 8lbs below his peak Flat mark achieved last year and 6lbs lower than when he ran 1¾ lengths 2nd of 10 in this race last year under a very moderate rider, and just 1lb above the mark he won this race two years ago from, under today’s rider Joey Sheridan. I could see Femme Beauty giving him company up front as the only confirmed possible front-runner, but I’d even fancy him to stick it out should he be taken on early doors.
From the others to note, Emerald Bay was looked at with good intent, but the race looks right tricky and I didn’t dislike Kigali at a price in the same race. Floral Maid is a short price at Beverley, but she very nearly landed us a mighty big winner when running 2nd, beaten just a neck, at 33/1 last month. I pointed out that day what a good record Cam Hardie has for Brian Ellison’s debutants, all at massive prices, and he continued that trend there. Last seven now read 1533232, all at truly enormous prices. This one is bred to want a bit of mud at the least (was Heavy LTO), and it’s better ground here. Crown Of Oaks looks a nice sort on paper and Wootton Bassett boys have an incredible record at Sandown, but he takes on a fellow Wootton Bassett colt who is a clear favourite and looks a tough nut to crack in a warm enough race.
Emerald Bay (4/1, Beverley 14:43), Crown Of Oaks (16/1, Sandown 15:30), Floral Maid (11/10, Beverley 15:48) and Going On (2/1, Kelso 18:55).
Best of luck to all getting involved today.
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Get your Ledger£29.99 a year · cancel any timeWhat do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
New to this? Read up on: Best Odds Guaranteed · Betting Odds · Going Descriptions
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