A decent Wolverhampton card today, where there is one bet which leapt off the page at me for one who has course and distance form miles beyond any of his competitors. Hopefully he can kick for home on the turn in and leave his rivals trailing again.
Clearly yesterday I was the only one in the country who fancied Ample Warning, as she was friendless in the betting and duly ran a nothing race. Nothing got into the race from off the pace, so I won’t be hard on her and I’d fancy her to have her day, albeit she will probably make more appeal in a mares’ race.
Almaty Star @ 4/1
Almaty Star @ 4/12pt Win | Wolverhampton 19:30
T: Robert Cowell | J: Jack Mitchell
A highly consistent sort over the minimum trip at a very good level, but it is his course form which makes Almaty Star of most interest here.
His two course and distance runs came a grade higher, in fiercely competitive Class 3 heats off of marks of 83 (won) and 86 (beaten a nostril in a head-bobber), so todays Class 4 0-80 looks a significant opportunity from a lowly comparitive mark of just 79.
His C&D win off of 83 last February was against a solid yardstick in Hiya Maite, who spent the year running off of 85-90, and although the winning distance was only ½ Length, he never looked like being caught.
The other run came a month later, where he got into an almighty fist of it with the highly capable Spartan Arrow, who has since gone on to win at Listed level in Chantilly and a Group 3 at Dundalk, where he put away some very decent types, and is now rated 103.
He liked a lead, which won’t be a given here, but the way he has kicked round the turn for home here has put everyone before him right under the pump, and I don’t think there’s anyone in here who will live with it.
Best of luck with your punting today,
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Race Class Levels · Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting
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