It’s Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse… The National’s are not ones I look at as betting opportunities whatsoever, but they’re always ones I enjoy watching. Ben Pauling’s The Jukebox Kid is at the top of the betting and looks a live chance, and if Jonjo O’Neill’s Monbeg Genius puts it together he too could have a seriously live chance. It would be great to see the British win the Irish National back-to-back, after Rebecca Curtis trained Haiti Couleurs success last year. They’re the two I’ll be egging on, but my main focus today will be on our one bet at Kempton.
In touch with leaders early, midfield after 2f, headway and in touch with leaders over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong
The only bet of the day is one we chanced back in February, on account of his falling mark making him look an extremely well handicapped horse, and that opinion hasn’t changed despite only running 4th of ten. It was the fact he was dropping into a 0-80 that day which made most appeal, and given context of the race he ran a cracker.
The pace was a very steady one, so Mr Baloo’s early position held up on the rail saw him trapped in a bit of a pocket, which when angling for a run on the turn in meant those ahead of him had got first run, a deciding factor at Lingfield with the short run in. Still, he made up plenty of ground and went past a good few to finish just 3½ lengths away, never nearer.
He has since dropped a further 2lbs in the weights, to a rating of just 79. From a highest winning mark of 87 and a total of five wins from this mark or higher, he is screaming a winner in waiting. Back down into a 0-80 today for the first time since, this looks a cracking opportunity and Kempton, where he has won twice from nine runs, should see him to better effect with the long straight.
The jockey booking of James Doyle suggests intent too, with a 22.5% strike rate for Hannon Jnr over the years, from some 120+ rides – A superb strike rate. I think today is the day.
Best of luck with your punting today,
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Visit the Shop →Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
New to this? Read up on: Each-Way Betting · Win-Only Betting · Handicap Races
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