The two bets today. We backed both the last time and hard luck found one again – that’s three consecutive runs where trouble has been put on him, and the other was beaten by the run of the race. Both have fair shouts to turn the tables today.
We were unfortunate yesterday at Newcastle too, with the only selection on the day – Mercurius Power. The race wasn’t particularly well run to suit early doors, which saw him off the bridle early, but he was really starting to motor when he got caught short of room between eventual 2nd Berkshire Phantom and 3rd Book Of Life. He was going better than both when his run was halted. One we will be keeping tabs on – specifically at Newcastle, a track he appears to love a spin at.
In touch with leaders, headway to lead inside final furlong, kept on
Towards rear, midfield over 1f out, no impression inside final furlong
He is staring down the barrel of owing us a good few quid here but I have to stick with Richard Hannon’s Mr Baloo here, who was unfortunate to beaten by how the race unfolded last time out at Kempton over the mile. Today should see those tables turned though, and having fancied the Hannon charge as being extremely well handicapped for so long now, I can’t see past him here.
Helm Rock managed to get himself the plum spot that day, where he was able to get a run on the field from a forward position as they straightened for home, which down Kempton’s long straight is a move which can effectively see a race stolen. Today though, Mr Baloo gets the plum draw in stall 1, with Helm Rock drawn on the outer, which at Lingfield will almost certainly prove a game changer. So long as Mr Baloo can get a nice early position on the rail, he will have every chance to win the race down the rail. He is certainly handicapped to strike and this looks about as good an opportunity as he could get.
I keep saying it, but I’m adamant the British handicappers just look at the results and distances to judge their handicap marks from, as yet again Chifa has been eased in the weights for a solid run whilst lacking lady luck on his side. I said in the last post how he had been dropped 1lb for finishing 9¾ length 10th of 12, despite being knocked sideways by an unfortunate faller in front of him who had suffered a heart attack mid-race. His last run, despite being a totally fair one, has seen him eased a further 2lbs.
This is a positive for us looking to bet him, as it should only make his case stronger, but it is becoming increasingly harder to study a race and judge an Official Rating (OR) when there are such nonsensical changes made willy-nilly. It’s obviously harsh on owners and trainers of such horses, but that’s the nature of the game and if you don’t get the rub of the green, there shouldn’t be a need to be making marked swings in the ratings for it. He has now dropped 3lbs for three hard luck stories. Still, I won’t complain – but it has to be said, there seems to be little control of the ratings at present.
It’s worth casting back to the case I made for him on Daily Dial #64, when last seen at Wolverhampton, as it all still stands but for the fact he now goes off his last winning mark. The only negative is we lose Luke Morris in the saddle, who instead rides the favourite, an in-form Profit Street. Luke is a masterful judge of a race, as I’ve been fortunate enough to experience first hand, and he would’ve done his homework here before deciding on a ride, as he does for every race no matter the grade, so that ranks a live danger. We get William Cox take over, who has a moderate strike rate but at least has a history with the selection.
Others to NoteAt Lingfield there are a few marked for a watch, in Prizeland (16:25), Starlight Sami and Victory Ace (17:00) and Leonie (17:30)
At Newmarket, Crazee Icon and Stellar Vision (15:00), Tan Rapido (15:35) and Bopedro (16:45). Max D’airy is worthy of an eyeball at Newton Abbot (in the Bumper (17:22), and then Plains Drifter at Market Rasen.
Best of luck with your punting today,
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
What does "each-way" mean?
An each-way bet is two bets in one — a Win bet and a Place bet, each for the same stake. So 1pt each-way means 1pt to win plus 1pt to place: 2pt total out of the bank.
The Place part pays out at a fraction of the win odds (usually 1/4 or 1/5) if the horse finishes in the places — typically the first 3 or 4 depending on the race. Each-way is the right call when the price is generous enough that the place return alone covers the stake. Full guide here.
How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
New to this? Read up on: Betting Odds · Draw Bias · Going Descriptions
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