Just the one bet today. We backed him last time and hard luck found him again – that’s three consecutive runs where trouble has been put on him, so he is well due a clear round.
We were unfortunate yesterday at Newcastle too, with the only selection on the day – Mercurius Power. The race wasn’t particularly well run to suit early doors, which saw him off the bridle early, but he was really starting to motor when he got caught short of room between eventual 2nd Berkshire Phantom and 3rd Book Of Life. He was going better than both when his run was halted. One we will be keeping tabs on – specifically at Newcastle, a track he appears to love a spin at.
Towards rear, midfield over 1f out, no impression inside final furlong
I keep saying it, but I’m adamant the British handicappers just look at the results and distances to judge their handicap marks from, as yet again Chifa has been eased in the weights for a solid run whilst lacking lady luck on his side. I said in the last post how he had been dropped 1lb for finishing 9¾ length 10th of 12, despite being knocked sideways by an unfortunate faller in front of him who had suffered a heart attack mid-race. His last run, despite being a totally fair one, has seen him eased a further 2lbs.
This is a positive for us looking to bet him, as it should only make his case stronger, but it is becoming increasingly harder to study a race and judge an Official Rating (OR) when there are such nonsensical changes made willy-nilly. It’s obviously harsh on owners and trainers of such horses, but that’s the nature of the game and if you don’t get the rub of the green, there shouldn’t be a need to be making marked swings in the ratings for it. He has now dropped 3lbs for three hard luck stories. Still, I won’t complain – but it has to be said, there seems to be little control of the ratings at present.
It’s worth casting back to the case I made for him on Daily Dial #64, when last seen at Wolverhampton, as it all still stands but for the fact he now goes off his last winning mark. The only negative is we lose Luke Morris in the saddle, who instead rides the favourite, an in-form Profit Street. Luke is a masterful judge of a race, as I’ve been fortunate enough to experience first hand, and he would’ve done his homework here before deciding on a ride, as he does for every race no matter the grade, so that ranks a live danger. We get William Cox take over, who has a moderate strike rate but at least has a history with the selection.
Others to NoteAt Lingfield there are a few marked for a watch, in Prizeland (16:25), Starlight Sami and Victory Ace (17:00), Leonie (17:30) and Elouise’s Prince and Epictetus (18:30).
At Newmarket, Crazee Icon and Stellar Vision (15:00), Tan Rapido (15:35) and Bopedro (16:45). Max D’airy is worthy of an eyeball at Newton Abbot (in the Bumper (17:22), and then Plains Drifter at Market Rasen.
Best of luck with your punting today,
