One flagged today who is worthy of nothing more than a minimal bet, but on pedigree alone he has to have a minor interest at wild odds of 33/1 currently available. He has shown nothing on his latest two starts, but he shown some form of promise under his former handler.
Midfield, headway from over 2f out, kept on but no impression inside final furlong
The selection is based on nothing more than a punt that his pedigree alone will see him outclass his OR of a lowly enough 67. By Wootton Bassett and out of Proviso, a Juddmonte mare who has produced two progeny to date – Sailing Solo, who clocked up winnings of over $300,000 with ten wins, five 2nd’s and five 3rd’s from twenty-eight runs in the United States, and then Boltaway who was a regular winner in Saudi Arabia, either side of being both a Listed and Group winner for Roger Charlton in the U.K. Added to the earnings Proviso herself amassed of over £1,000,000, and you get the idea they’re a talented bloodline.
This is a lowly race for anything with this sort of pedigree, and the fact he showed a sign of at least some ability when he was starting out under Paul Midgley, would suggest he shouldn’t have his current mark beyond him. He is impossible to make a solid case for, hence a reduced stake, but at wild odds he is well worthy of a minor interest than his natural make-up will see him at least competitive at this level.
Best of luck with your punting today,
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Visit the Shop →How do I follow this bet?
Best route is Oddschecker. It pulls every UK bookmaker's price into one screen so you can grab the top of the market — and crucially it shows the place terms, which vary by firm. One bookmaker might offer 11/1 paying 3 places at 1/4 odds; another might offer the same 11/1 paying 4 places at 1/5. Maximum win return vs hedged each-way return — your call which serves the bet better.
If the price has shortened since I advised it, judge it on the case in the prose. Rule of thumb: I'm generally happy down to about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1, 8/1 down to 5/1. Below that it's marginal and probably worth passing. Keep an eye on the price in the last 20 minutes too — short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed and you're covered either way.
What if the price has shortened by the time I get to it?
Judge it bet by bet. The cleaner the case in the prose, the more decay I'll tolerate. Rule of thumb is about two-thirds of the advised price — 14/1 down to 10/1 is still in, 9/1 down to 6/1 still fine, anything below that is marginal.
Worth knowing: short prices often drift back out as the off approaches, especially on outsiders. Keep checking in the last 20 minutes — you may get back to the advised price or close to it. And always bet with bookmakers offering Best Odds Guaranteed so you're covered if the SP comes back bigger.
Why are some bets win-only and others each-way?
Three things decide it: confidence, race shape, and the betting market.
If I think a horse has an outstanding win chance, I'll back it win-only to maximise the return — even at a bigger price, where each-way would normally be the safer call. If the win case is more speculative but the place case is strong, each-way carries the bet.
Concrete example: Almanack at Kempton, 2 July 2014. Advised at 22/1 win-only in the morning. The price shortened to 16/1 SP and he won by a short head on the line. Win-only on a confident shout at a generous price is where the real returns come from — when the case is right, you back it to win, not to hedge.
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
New to this? Read up on: Win-Only Betting · Ante-Post Betting · Best Odds Guaranteed
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