Chester really appealed for a bet yesterday — albeit a fruitless day — but today looks really tough and I’d urge anyone playing the card to wager with caution. Another cracking watch it will be, but I’m throwing darts elsewhere, with two decent enough cards at Windsor and Redcar looking like better punting opportunities.
Yesterday we discussed Aidan O’Brien’s dominance at Chester over the years, and whilst that’s a term which can be broadly used across flat racing when it comes to Ballydoyle, there are few courses more apt than Chester, as referred to in detail on the Chester Racecourse Guide. A hideous strike rate with what proves to be the yard’s auditions ahead of Epsom, and yesterday Ryan Moore went another two from two for them with Amelia Earhart and Benvenuto Cellini respectively. They made it nine consecutive winners for the O’Brien and Moore combination, and a staggering nineteen from their last twenty-three.
They go again today with Constitution River in the Dee Stakes (4/5, 14:35) and Jan Brueghel in the Ormonde Stakes (10/11, 15:05). Not odds I get any joy out of betting, but the trend makes the 2.4/1 Double look appealing, especially so with Constitution River being touted for the French Derby already.
Not a bet for me but one I’ll be watching with interest is Roach Power in the opener for Michael Wigham (66/1, 13:30). This is likely a task too far, but he’s an excellent example of how a change of yards can see a horse flourish. He was previously with Tim Easterby, who almost exclusively ran him over six and seven furlongs, winning once over each trip — both following his win on his only start over 5f for Easterby. He then went to Michael Wigham, who continued in the same vein over six and seven furlongs for his first seven runs for the yard, before switching him to the minimum trip — which saw him flourish.
He won five of his next eleven starts, all over the minimum trip, and climbed in the handicap from a mark of 54 to 87. This is one of his toughest gigs to date and will very likely prove beyond him, but it just goes to show how an optimal distance for a horse can be so chronically overlooked, even by a thoroughly seasoned handler.
Raced in second, pressed winner over 2f out, ridden and lost second over 1f out, no extra and lost third inside final 110yds
Ducked left start, soon switched right, in rear, headway on near side of group over 2f out, went second 1f out, kept on final 110yds
The first bet of the day goes at Windsor, where I fancy GREAT BLASKET to prove far too well handicapped for this rare drop into Class 5 company. Over the last two years he has been plying his trade off marks in and around the mid 80’s.
His turf record off OR’s <80 reads 1121501816 (5 from 10), with only one of those coming in as low a grade as the Class 5 he fares in today (he won, despite being short of room). A succession of poor runs on the All-Weather over the winter and new year has seen his mark tumble, meaning he now comes back to the turf (with a record of 7/22) off an OR of just 72 — the lowest mark he has ever competed from in the U.K. Saffie Osborne rides, who has been in great form, and Dr Newland is a dab hand at placing these into the right races.
The other bet comes on the evening card at Redcar, with SINGOURA for Gemma Tutty and Connor Beasley. She was a filly I had kept an eye on throughout last year, as she looked a very promising two-year-old when seen at the back-end of her 2yo season.
For whatever reason, last year it just didn’t come off for her, with a 1 length 2nd of five off an OR of 75 being the best she achieved in six runs. That said, she looked a massive filly as a 2yo, so it’s not unheard of for them to take a dip before finding their feet again. She reappeared in March, running 8th of 15 at Doncaster on ground softer than ideal, but went back there at the back-end of last month on faster ground off an OR of just 64 and looked a different animal, despite not having an ideal passage.
She’s a rangy, long-striding filly, not without her quirks, and got caught in a tight little pocket in a slowly run race, never looking like settling. Despite that, she still finished strongly, only doing her best work in the final two furlongs, and was eventually beaten just 1¼ lengths in 4th of 16. She goes today off an unchanged mark of 64, which looks well within her grasp.
Others to note…
A trio at Chester were on the longlist but I let them go. ROMAN DRAGON (11/4, 13:30) is the course specialist — Chester’s winning-most horse — but the price is just too short for a tricky event like this. CATURRA LIGHTS (4/1, 14:05) ran a fine 3rd at Sandown, beaten only half a length by Seed Ya Later (a previous winning pick), and I’d expected that to be smart form — but the 2nd and 4th have since reappeared and bombed, so I’m holding off. MONARCH’S GOLD (13/2, 15:40) is in danger of being my cliff horse. He’s been disappointing of late but is totally unexposed on turf (beaten a head on his only turf start at the back-end of last season), the extra furlong should suit, and Too Darn Hot progeny do well at Chester. I just wanted an each-way price and couldn’t get one.
Best of luck to all getting involved. Be Lucky!
What happens if my horse is a non-runner?
If a horse is declared a non-runner before the race, your stake is returned in full on win or each-way singles.
If it's part of a multiple (accumulator, lucky-15, etc), the bet runs on without that leg and the remaining legs are recalculated. For ante-post bets the rules differ — usually no refund unless the bookmaker is offering NRNB ("Non-Runner No Bet") on the race. Full breakdown here.
Why no advised bet some days?
Because there isn't one. The cards don't always offer value, and the worst thing a tipster can do is force a selection just to fill a slot.
A "No Bet" day is the system working — it's the same discipline that produces the winners on the days the bets are right. Better to sit out a card cleanly than to bleed the bank on filler. The best days are usually the ones I've been patient before.
What do the stake points mean?
Stakes are sized in points, not pounds — that way the same plan works on any size of bankroll.
The Daily Dial uses a simple scale: 1pt is the minimum bet (or 0.5pt each-way), 2pt is a standard bet (or 1pt each-way), and 5pt is the maximum on the strongest fancies (or 2.5pt each-way). The whole thing runs off a 100pt bankroll, so a £100 bank means a point is £1 and a 2pt bet is £2; a £1,000 bank means a point is £10 and a 2pt bet is £20. Scale to whatever feels comfortable.
What's a sensible bankroll?
Whatever you can genuinely afford to lose, full stop. Don't play with rent money. Don't chase last week.
For new starters, a sensible starting point is a £100 bank at £1 per point. From there, scale the unit up by 0.5pt for every 50% the bankroll grows — £150 bank → £1.50/pt, £200 → £2/pt, £250 → £2.50/pt, and so on. The inverse — cutting the unit when the bank drops — is good practice but personal preference; I don't do it myself but it's sound advice for most.
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